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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY weekly chart, June 06, 2019

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading sessions that make up the week. We struggled at the 109.70 level and then broke down rather significantly. Breaking down below the 109 level underneath then it opens up the door to the 108 level. If we can break down below there, it’s likely that the market could open up down to the 105 level after that. Overall though, the 100 level will be rather crucial, so we will have to see whether or not the market can hold itself there.

USD/JPY Video 03.06.19

Keep in mind that the pair is very sensitive to risk appetite, so if we continue to see a lot of trouble in the commodity markets and more importantly the stock markets, we will probably see this pair break down. It certainly looks as if we are starting to struggle in general, so at this point I like the idea that we would probably find value underneath. However, the question is whether or not those risk appetite situations can stabilize and other markets such as the S&P 500.

All things being equal, the market is very likely to be very noisy in this general vicinity, so therefore I think what we are looking at is a scenario where it’s probably easier to sell, you need to break through the 100 a barrier first. Otherwise, a supportive candle such as a hammer might be a buying opportunity for a couple of handles. You are probably going to find this market easier to trade on shorter time frames.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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