USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Forecast – January 24, 2017

As we had mentioned in our forecast yesterday, the USDCAD pair continues to consolidate and trade within a tight range. The statement from the BOC last week that the Canadian economy remains stagnant with not much progress and that it is seriously considering the cutting of interest rates in the coming months has helped to keep the CAD under a lot of pressure which has somewhat offset the weakness in the dollar which we have been seeing across the board over the last few days.

In fact, the CAD is probably the only currency that the dollar has gained over the last few days and continues to hold on to its gains while it has weakened against the other currencies. The USD has been in a lot of trouble of late as the market is uncertain on what to expect from the new administration under Trump. He continues on his wild ways unbecoming of a true statesman and the market is under constant jitters on what is going to come out of his twitter feed next. This keeps the market on the edge and the initial euphoria surrounding his election, when he was expected to be good for business, has evaporated as we get down to serious business. It would take some effort from the new administration to restore confidence in the economy and also in their efforts to keep things running in the US.

Looking ahead to today, we do not have any major economic data to be released from the Canadian or the US region and hence we expect the consolidation and ranging to continue for today as well. The weakness of both the CAD and the USD seem to be balancing out each other and hence we have not been able to see much progress from the bulls in pushing the USDCAD pair towards 1.3400 and beyond.