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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 23, 2015, 16:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD recovered 3 points after its huge fall on Wednesday. The pair is now trading well below its 2014 average at

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2014 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis April 11, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD recovered 3 points after its huge fall on Wednesday. The pair is now trading well below its 2014 average at 1.0884. . The CAD is down –0.1% from yesterday’s NA close, after having rallied over 3% since March 20th. The more positive shift in CAD has come from a string of better than expected and improving domestic data releases (GDP, inflation, labor and trade) and Monday’s BoC business outlook survey that confirmed that businesses are increasing optimistic. The greenback lost some ground against the Canadian Dollar during the afternoon ahead of the FOMC policy statement, which underlined the Fed’s commitment to keep borrowing costs low to help drive the global economic recovery.

The Canadian dollar reached the strongest level in almost three months as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting suggested the Bank of Canada may keep pace with its U.S. counterpart in raising interest rates.

The currency strengthened for a fourth day after minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s March 18-19 meeting showed several officials said projections for an interest-rate increase were overstated. Canadian economic data have beaten forecasts this month, while U.S. reports have trailed projections, damping speculation the U.S. central bank would move faster to raise interest rates and boost the value of its currency against Canada’s.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data April 10, 2014 actual v. forecast

Cur.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  NZD

Business NZ PMI

58.4

 

56.5

 

  GBP

RICS House Price Balance

57%

44%

45%

 

  AUD

Employment Change

18.1K

5.0K

48.2K

 

  AUD

Full Employment Change

-22.1K

 

80.0K

 

  AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.8%

6.0%

6.1%

 

  CNY

Chinese Exports (YoY)

-6.6%

4.0%

-18.1%

 

  CNY

Chinese Imports (YoY)

-11.3%

2.4%

10.1%

 

  CNY

Chinese Trade Balance

7.71B

0.90B

-22.98B

 

  GBP

BoE QE Total

 

375B

375B

 

  GBP

Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

  CAD

New Housing Price Index (MoM)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

  USD

Initial Jobless Claims

 

320K

326K

 

  USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

-78.0B

-193.5B

 

 

USDCAD(15 minutes)20140410132910

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Apr. 11

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.0%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.2%

-2.0%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

0.5%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

81.0

80.0

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Expectations 

71.4

70.0

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Apr 11 09:10 Italy

Apr 14 09:30 Germany

Apr 15 09:30 Belgium

Apr 15 14:30 UK

Apr 16 09:03 Sweden

Apr 16 09:30 Germany

Apr 17 09:00 Slovakia

Apr 17 15:00 US

Apr 17 15:30 Italy

 

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