USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 11, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 10, 2015, 10:01 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD added 13 points but remains dead center of its range at 1.3147 after breaking the 1.32 level last week on the

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 13 points but remains dead center of its range at 1.3147 after breaking the 1.32 level last week on the stronger US dollar. Weak Chinese data is weighing on the commodity currencies around the globe. As oil prices continue to tumble and the US dollar remains near its top range the CAD has little strength. Disappointing Chinese exports and a drop in Japans Current Account is weakening the demand for commodities.

The dollar has been hovering around its lowest point in 11 years in recent days, with some experts suggesting it could still fall lower and stay low for months to come. Oil, meanwhile, was trading at its lowest point in months today.

Mike Moffatt, an economist and assistant professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School, said the combination of these factors could spur hiring opportunities if they persist.

“I think manufacturers will be hiring and that should knock down our unemployment rates a little bit,” Moffatt told CBC Radio’s Afternoon Drive in a telephone interview on Wednesday.

“So, you’re never too sure how long the dollar will stay low for, but if this continues, this should be good for us.”

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian exports jumped by more than six per cent in June, a boost that Moffatt said looks promising and may point to the advantage that a falling dollar provides for this same sector.

“This is only one month of data, but it looks like we may have finally turned a corner and our exporters are now taking advantage of this lower dollar,” he said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

This weekend and today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	Exports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.3%	-1.0%	2.8%
CNY	Imports (YoY) (Jul)	-8.1%	-8.0%	-6.1%
CNY	Trade Balance (Jul)	43.03B	53.25B	46.54B
CNY	CPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
CNY	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%
CNY	PPI (YoY) (Jul)	-5.4%	-5.0%	-4.8%
JPY	Adjusted Current Account	1.30T	1.41T	1.64T
JPY	Current Account n.s.a. (Jun)	0.559T	0.774T	1.881T
JPY	BoJ Monthly Report

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)			10
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions		64.4	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment		32.0	29.7
CAD	Housing Starts (Jul)		195.0K	202.8K
USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)		1.6%	-3.1%
USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2)		0.2%	6.7%
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M