USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 19, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 18, 2015, 11:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD gained 24 points to trade at 1.3103 as oil continues to tumble weighing heavily on the Canadian economy. The

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gained 24 points to trade at 1.3103 as oil continues to tumble weighing heavily on the Canadian economy. The latest indicators suggest a modest revival for Canadian manufacturers.

June trade numbers suggest exports from the province rose 15 per cent year-over-year, while Friday’s June manufacturing reading showed sales in Ontario edged just 0.4 per cent higher after two consecutive decreases.

That data suggest the province’s exports largely came from existing inventories, rather than increases in production, said RBC economist Paul Ferley, adding that a pickup in production in the manufacturing sector will be key to Canada’s ability to claw out of what is likely a recession.

“This is a big issue,” he said.

Export-oriented producers, such as those in the food, auto and high-tech equipment sectors are starting to fill their order books, hire and invest — something the sector hasn’t seen in a while, said Jayson Myers, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters. He says that growth is being offset by declines by manufacturers who supply the oil patch.

Exporters are in a tougher competitive position than the last time the dollar fell, he said, as market forces have also driven down the currency of cheaper competitors, such as the Mexican peso.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun)	103.1B	23.0B	93.0B
AUD	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Jul)	-0.2%	-0.3%	0.0%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Jul)	-0.9%	-1.9%	-1.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-0.847M
NZD	PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2)			-1.1%
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Jul)		5.5%	9.5%
JPY	Trade Balance (Jul)		-57B	-69B
USD	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.8%	1.8%
USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	CPI (MoM) (Jul)		0.2%	0.3%
RUB	Unemployment Rate (Jul)		5.5%	5.4%
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-1.682M