USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 3, 2015, 10:50 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD soared by 63 points to near record highs at 1.3154 as the greenback rallied and commodity currencies were routed

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD soared by 63 points to near record highs at 1.3154 as the greenback rallied and commodity currencies were routed after the miss in Chinese manufacturing PMI. Crude oil continued to fall weighing on the Loonie. Last Friday’s alarm over U.S. wage growth was the report on May GDP for Canada from Statistics Canada. Canada reported its fifth consecutive monthly decline all but guaranteeing the country will breach the technical definition of recession once the full second quarter report is ready.

GDP only declined 0.2% month-over-month, but the weakness was broad-based. The output of both goods and service producing industries fell, changes of -0.6% and -0.1%, respectively.

The market’s hesitation over the scheduling of lift-off for rates in the U.S. means that the Canadian dollar has a bit of a grace period remaining.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Canada – Civic Holiday
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	47.8	48.3	48.2
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.8	51.5	51.5
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.9	51.6	51.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.5%	0.3%
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Construction PMI (Jul)		58.4	58.1