USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 4, 2015, 10:09 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD continued to climb as the Loonie is on the edge with gold and oil remaining depressed and the dollar climbing as

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD continued to climb as the Loonie is on the edge with gold and oil remaining depressed and the dollar climbing as the FOMC meeting looms closer. The pair added 63 points to trade at 1.3154. Data on Monday showed slightly weaker US manufacturing activity and a modest gain in consumer spending.

The focus is now on Friday’s jobs reports as investors look for the latest clues about the timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike — a plus for the dollar.

Markets are expecting a rise as early as September, but the US central bank said any move depends on signs of strengthening in the world’s top economy.

Separately, a key gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity plunged to a two-year low in July, according to figures published Monday, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is struggling. Commodity currencies are off to the worst start to a year since the financial crisis amid signs of a slowdown in China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars plunged against their U.S. counterpart as Bloomberg’s commodity index tumbled to a more than 13-year low. The currencies of commodity-exporting nations suffered after an official Chinese factory gauge slipped to the least in five months, dimming the demand outlook.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.7%	0.5%	0.4%
AUD	Trade Balance (Jun)	-2.933B	-3.100B	-2.677B
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%
AUD	RBA Rate Statement
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jul)	3.5%	3.5%	3.3%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	0.4%	-0.2%
EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	-74.0K	-45.6K	-94.7K
GBP	Construction PMI (Jul)	57.1	58.4	58.1

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	Services PMI (Jul)		58.0	58.5
USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change		215K	237K
USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		56.2	56.0