Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD declined a few pips as the US dollar wavered today. Negative CPI in the US was offset by weak manufacturing
The USD/CAD declined a few pips as the US dollar wavered today. Negative CPI in the US was offset by weak manufacturing sales in Canada. CAD is essentially flat to yesterday’s close but still biased for strength. On a month-to-date basis, CAD is up just 1%. However in USDCAD terms we note that every trading session it has closed at a lower level than the previous day. Yesterday, the Russian central bank announced that it has been a large buyer of CAD, as the currency’s weight has increased from 2% to 3.5% of total reserves. In economic news, new Housing Price Index (HPI) in Canada rose 0.2% (MoM) in October, slightly better than market-expectations of a 0.1% rise. Additionally, the capacity utilization rate in Canada rose to 80.9% in the third quarter of 2012, compared to a downwardly revised same rate recorded in the previous quarter.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.90 |
|
|
|
50.50 |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.6% |
|
1.8% |
|
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
|
45.0 |
|
44.5 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
|
47.2 |
|
46.8 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
|
46.6 |
|
46.2 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
|
2.2% |
|
2.2% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Employment Change (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.5% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-1.40% |
|
0.00% |
|
0.40% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
|
1.9% |
|
2.2% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 17 |
13:30 |
CAD |
|
13.92B |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5 |
-5.2 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
|
3.3B |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 17 10:10 Norway
Dec 17 18:00 US
Dec 18 01:30 Japan
Dec 18 09:30 Spain
Dec 18 10:10 Greece
Dec 18 18:00 US
Dec 19 18:00 US
Dec 20 10:30 UK
Dec 20 16:30 Italy
Dec 20 18:00 US
Dec 21 16:30 Italy