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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD dipped today, to trade at 0.9933. With gold and oil climbing, the CAD has some back up and was able to gain.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped today, to trade at 0.9933. With gold and oil climbing, the CAD has some back up and was able to gain. Also Chinese data helped support all of the commodity currencies. A better risk environment, a broadly weaker USD and encouraging PMI releases from China are being offset by concerns that weaker than expected Q3 GDP will soften the hawkish stance at the BoC. Traders are now  expecting the Canadian interest rates to be left on hold and the statement to be in line with the October release; with uncertainty over the leadership at the BoC come June 2013, the risk is that the statement is discounted as we await news on the next governor of the BoC. Also important this week will be Friday’s employment report, expected to show job gains of 10k in November.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 03

 

AUD

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.50

 

50.40 

 

50.40 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

0.38%

 

0.91% 

 

1.96% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

 

4.1% 

 

5.4% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

48.5

 

47.0 

 

46.1 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

45.10

 

45.90 

 

45.50 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.5

 

44.7 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.8

 

46.8 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.2

 

46.2 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.1

 

48.1 

 

47.3 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.80 

 

51.3 

 

51.7 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 04

14:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00% 

1.00% 

Dec. 05

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

125K 

158K 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.7% 

1.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

-0.9% 

-0.1% 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.5 

54.2 

Dec. 06

13:30

CAD

Building Permits (MoM) 

3.0% 

-13.2% 

 

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

59.0 

58.3 

Dec. 07

13:30

CAD

Employment Change 

10.0K 

1.8K 

 

13:30

CAD

Labor Productivity (QoQ) 

 

-0.5% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 04 01:30 Japan 

Dec 04 10:30 Belgium 

Dec 04 15:30 UK 

Dec 05 09:30 Spain 

Dec 05 10:30 Germany 

Dec 05 11:00 Norway 

Dec 05 15:30 Sweden 

Dec 06 01:30 Japan 

Dec 06 09:50 France 

Dec 06 16:00 US 

Dec 07 16:30 Italy

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