Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD dipped today, to trade at 0.9933. With gold and oil climbing, the CAD has some back up and was able to gain.
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD dipped today, to trade at 0.9933. With gold and oil climbing, the CAD has some back up and was able to gain. Also Chinese data helped support all of the commodity currencies. A better risk environment, a broadly weaker USD and encouraging PMI releases from China are being offset by concerns that weaker than expected Q3 GDP will soften the hawkish stance at the BoC. Traders are now expecting the Canadian interest rates to be left on hold and the statement to be in line with the October release; with uncertainty over the leadership at the BoC come June 2013, the risk is that the statement is discounted as we await news on the next governor of the BoC. Also important this week will be Friday’s employment report, expected to show job gains of 10k in November.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Dec. 03 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) |
-2.9% |
|
-2.5% |
|
-0.3% |
||
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.50 |
|
50.40 |
|
50.40 |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TRY |
|
|
Turkish CPI (MoM) |
0.38% |
|
0.91% |
|
1.96% |
|
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
4.1% |
|
5.4% |
|
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
SVME PMI |
48.5 |
|
47.0 |
|
46.1 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
45.10 |
|
45.90 |
|
45.50 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.5 |
|
44.7 |
|
44.7 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.8 |
|
46.8 |
|
46.8 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
|
46.2 |
|
46.2 |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
49.1 |
|
48.1 |
|
47.3 |
||
|
|
USD |
|
|
ISM Manufacturing Index |
52.80 |
|
51.3 |
|
51.7 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 04 |
14:00 |
CAD |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
Dec. 05 |
13:15 |
USD |
125K |
158K |
|
13:30 |
USD |
2.7% |
1.9% |
||
13:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
||
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
54.2 |
||
Dec. 06 |
13:30 |
CAD |
3.0% |
-13.2% |
|
15:00 |
CAD |
59.0 |
58.3 |
||
Dec. 07 |
13:30 |
CAD |
10.0K |
1.8K |
|
13:30 |
CAD |
|
-0.5% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 04 01:30 Japan
Dec 04 10:30 Belgium
Dec 04 15:30 UK
Dec 05 09:30 Spain
Dec 05 10:30 Germany
Dec 05 11:00 Norway
Dec 05 15:30 Sweden
Dec 06 01:30 Japan
Dec 06 09:50 France
Dec 06 16:00 US
Dec 07 16:30 Italy