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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis January 7, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 21:00 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is flat as the North American session gets underway trading at 1.0637 with traders waiting for the release of

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis January 7, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis January 7, 2014 Forecast
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis January 7, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is flat as the North American session gets underway trading at 1.0637 with traders waiting for the release of ISM manufacturing data later in the day. Tomorrow’s calendar is full of Canadian data which should see the CAD volatile. The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting will be released on Wednesday. Central bank policy makers decided at that meeting that they would begin to pare stimulus, and cut asset purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion a month. The minutes could hint at the timing and pace of any further reductions to the Fed’s stimulus.

Friday will bring the December U.S. payrolls report, which could suggest whether domestic job growth is strong enough for the Fed to continue tapering its asset buying.

Currently, there is no expectation of an interest rate hike or cut priced into the Canadian 1‐year OIS market. As inflation has dropped below the 1% to 3% inflation control range, Governor Poloz has shifted to a more dovish stance. Inflation is likely to be the most important data print for judging the path of interest rates in Canada and the outlook for CAD. Domestic data on average came in stronger than expected in December—similar to the US; accordingly any upward shift in inflation would shift the Canadian dollar outlook

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data January 6, 2014 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jan. 06

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

50.9

 

 

 

52.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Services PMI 

54.2

 

51.5 

 

51.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Services PMI 

47.9

 

48.7 

 

47.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Services PMI 

47.8

 

47.4 

 

47.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Services PMI 

53.5

 

54.0 

 

54.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Services PMI 

51.0

 

51.0 

 

51.0 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

58.8

 

60.0 

 

60.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 

 

 

54.5 

 

53.9 

   

 

USDCAD(60 minutes)20140106130745

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Jan. 07

13:30

CAD

Trade Balance 

 

0.08B

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-39.50B

-40.60B

 

13:30

CAD

Exports 

41.00B

40.47B

 

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

52.0

53.7

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