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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis June 8, 2012, Forecast
By:
Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD dipped today, trading at 1.0250 as markets reacted to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony, where he stated that
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD dipped today, trading at 1.0250 as markets reacted to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony, where he stated that the Fed was watching the economy closely and would act if required but not at this time. He offered no other insight into Fed thoughts or guidance. He just assured congress that they would act if the economy showed signs of stress.
CAD rallied in response to the PBoC rate cut, gaining 0.5% since yesterday’s close. The combination of improving data from Australia, speculation that the Fed will unleash further accommodation, a relatively hawkish BoC, an easing in risk aversion and PBoC action have all supported CAD. The headwinds, particularly Europe’s ability to drive risk aversion, remain significant, and the near-term risk is still CAD weakness; however over the medium term we expect CAD to outperform. We hold a year-end CADUSD forecast of 1.01 (or USDCAD of 0.99). Today’s release of Ivey PMI came in well above forecast but is unlikely to drive markets. For Canada the next major domestic data print will be tomorrow’s employment release, with consensus calling for +5k and the unemployment rate steady at 7.3%.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
38.9K |
|
-5.0K |
|
15.5K |
|
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
|
5.1% |
|
5.0% |
|||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
3.2% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.1% |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
-2.4% |
|
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Services PMI |
53.3 |
|
52.7 |
|
53.3 |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BOE QE Total |
325B |
|
325B |
|
325B |
|
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
377K |
|
377K |
|
389K |
|||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3293K |
|
3245K |
|
3259K |
|||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Ivey PMI |
60.5 |
|
55.0 |
|
52.7 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
|
Previous |
|
Jun 8 |
12:15 |
CAD |
245K |
|
|
12:30 |
CAD |
58.2K |
||
|
12:30 |
CAD |
0.4B |
||
|
12:30 |
CAD |
7.3% |
||
|
12:30 |
CAD |
0.7% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-51.8B |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 08 10:00 Belgium
Jun 08 15:30 Italy
Jun 11 09:10 Norway
Jun 11 09:10 Slovakia
Jun 11 09:30 Germany
Jun 11 15:30 Italy
Jun 12 08:30 Holland
Jun 12 09:15 Austria
Jun 12 09:30 Belgium
Jun 12 09:30 UK
Jun 12 14:30 UK
Jun 12 17:00 US
Jun 13 09:10 Italy
Jun 13 09:30 Germany
Jun 13 09:30 Swiss
Jun 13 17:00 US
Jun 14 09:10 Italy
Jun 14 09:30 UK
Jun 14 15:00 US
Jun 14 17:00 US
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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