USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 13, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD climbed by 68 pips hitting a two week high after Canadian data missed expectations. Jobs data saw the unemployment rate just 2 points to 7.2% almost equal to that of the US, while job expectations narrowed. Gold and crude oil both tumbled today, leaving no support for the CAD.

Last month markets were shocked when StatsCan released a loss of –55k jobs, consensus had been for +7k, (see data below); USDCAD rallied 65 points, from 1.0140 to 1.0205, only to mostly retrace throughout the day this was the same day that the US reported a shocking 88k nonfarm payrolls, whereas today we have the benefit of knowing last week’s nonfarm. The 2013 employment releases have been volatile, with significant downside misses in January and March and a large upside surprise in February.

The US dollar continues to climb on positive eco data as the jobs market continues to improve and the economic outlook for the US shows that the recovery has survived the fiscal cliff and the sequestered budget cuts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 10, 2013 actual v. forecast

 

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