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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 9, 2014 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD eased by 13 points to trade at 108.86 as the Looney continued to gain after stronger data on Wednesday helped
The USD/CAD eased by 13 points to trade at 108.86 as the Looney continued to gain after stronger data on Wednesday helped the currency to rebound while the US dollar eased touching a 2014 low. Chinese exports increased 0.9 percent in April from a year earlier, when figures were inflated by fraudulent invoicing, the Beijing-based customs administration said today. That compared with the median estimate for a 3 percent decline in a separate Bloomberg survey. Imports gained 0.8 percent.
Yellen, questioned by Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican who heads the committee, repeatedly declined to specify when the benchmark interest rate might rise.
“There is no mechanical formula or timetable for when that will occur,” she said. She repeated the Federal Open Market Committee statement that the rate will stay near zero for a “considerable time” after the Fed ends its bond-purchase program intended to spur growth. In March, Yellen responded to a reporter’s question by saying the rate might start to rise about six months after the Fed ends its asset purchases, a timeframe she hasn’t repeated.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data May 8, 2014 actual v. forecast
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
54% |
56% |
57% |
|
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
14.2K |
6.8K |
22.0K |
|
|
AUD |
Full Employment Change |
14.2K |
|
-22.8K |
|
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
5.8% |
5.9% |
5.8% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Exports (YoY) |
0.9% |
-1.7% |
-6.6% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Imports (YoY) |
0.8% |
-2.3% |
-11.3% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
18.45B |
13.90B |
7.71B |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
-1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (YoY) |
8.5% |
9.1% |
8.7% |
|
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
CAD |
Housing Starts |
|
175.0K |
156.8K |
|
|
CAD |
New Housing Price Index (MoM) |
|
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
325K |
344K |
|
|
USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies |
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 09 |
CNY |
2.1% |
2.4% |
|
|
|
CNY |
-1.8% |
-2.3% |
|
|
|
CNY |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
16.6B |
15.7B |
|
|
|
GBP |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
|
|
GBP |
-9.00B |
-9.09B |
Government Bond Auction
Date Event
May 12 EUR German 30-y Bond Auction
May 12 GBP 30-y Bond Auction
May 12 JPY 30-y Bond Auction
May 13 EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
May 14 USD Crude Oil Inventories
May 15 EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
May 15 USD Natural Gas Storage
May 16 GBP 10-y Bond Auction
May 16 GBP 30-y Bond Auction
May 21 EUR German 10-y Bond Auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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