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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 11, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 10, 2015, 12:25 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD dipped 13 points after soaring toward a recent high. The currency simply is making a correction after soaring

USD/CAD Daily Forecast

usdcad tuesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped 13 points after soaring toward a recent high. The currency simply is making a correction after soaring close to the 1.33 price level and is holding at 1.3274. The Canadian Dollar rallied from the 1-month low as investors cashed in on the sharp appreciation in the US dollar caused by the positive Non-Farm Payrolls data last week.

In economic news, Canada’s housing starts fell to a level of 198.1K in October, dropping at its fastest pace in eight months, from a three-year high reading of 231.3K in the previous month. Investors had expected it to drop to a level of 200.0K.

Separately, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), forecasted Canada’s economic growth to slow down to 1.2% this year. It further estimated the country to grow by 2.0% and 2.3% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The US Dollar jumped to multi-month highs against most major currencies after it was announced that the US unemployment rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest level since 2008 and 271,000 jobs were added in October, the largest monthly increase for the entire year.  The positive data heightened talk of the Fed raising interest rates in the upcoming December monetary policy meeting. This would be the first interest rate since 2006, with such a rate rise enabling foreign investment, strengthening the dollar.

Gains against the Loonie were limited after Statistics Canada reported that the number of employed people increased by 44.400 last month, surpassing analyst expectations for a 10.000 gain. Meanwhile, unemployment in Canada, the world’s 11th largest economy, fell from 7.1% to 7.0%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

0.78T

1.50T

1.59T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a. (Sep)

1.468T

2.235T

1.653T

 

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Oct)

-0.2%

0.7%

2.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Sep)

2.0%

0.1%

1.5%

   

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Oct)

2

3

5

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (Oct)

-0.3%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Oct)

1.3%

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (Oct)

-5.9%

-5.8%

-5.9%

   

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

2.800M

 

 

  AUD

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

 

4.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)

 

10.2%

10.3%

 

 

  CNY

 

Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)

 

5.8%

5.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep)

 

3.2%

3.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Oct)

 

1.5K

4.6K

 

 

  GBP

 

Unemployment Rate (Sep)

 

5.4%

5.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 09 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 16:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 11:00 Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 11:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 11 12:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 12 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 11:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 10:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 10:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Nov 19 10:50 France Auctions BTANs

Nov 19 11:50 France Auctions OATi

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

 

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