USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 23, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD soared 29 points to reach 1.3313 as the greenback recovered on comments from several Fed members including Stanley Fischer who is now on board for an increase.  Canada’s inflation rate remained at the bottom of the central bank’s target range in October, as lower gasoline prices were met with rising food and shelter costs.

The consumer price index rose 1 percent in October from a year ago, matching the September pace, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. The core rate, which excludes eight volatile products, also increased at the same pace as September with a

2.1 percent advance. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the total rate would rise 1 percent and core by 2 percent.

Consumer prices have lagged the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent target all year, a reflection of slack that Governor Stephen Poloz says will take until around mid-2017 to use up. The central bank cut its key rate to 0.5 percent in July to ward off damage from an oil shock that cut business investment.

Canadian retail sales posted their first decline in five months in September, led by cheaper gasoline.

Sales decreased 0.5 percent to C$43.3 billion ($32.5 billion), Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a 0.1 percent increase, based on the median of 18 projections.

Spending remains close to a record high in a year were consumers are threatened by record debt burdens and incomes hurt by a drop in crude oil prices. The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates twice this year to 0.5 percent and has said growth will be slowed again next year by a drop in energy investment.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 23, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus