USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gained 21 points as the US dollar rallied today ahead of tomorrow’s testimony by Janet Yellen. Commodities on the whole remain weak but oil prices are up while gold slips leaving no help for the Canadian dollar.

The US and European data gave some support to US stock markets, where investors put cash to work in the first trading day of a new month and the start of a fiscal year for mutual funds, according to Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel & Co in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 88.46 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 17,752, the S&P 500 gained 13.5 points, or 0.65 per cent, to 2,092.86 and the Nasdaq Composite added 46.10 points, or 0.91 per cent, to 5,099.85. The markets were up despite negative news from manufacturers. The RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for October, a widely watched indicator of the health of the Canadian manufacturing industry, slumped to its worst showing since the survey began in 2010.

Adjusted for seasonal influences, the index posted a 48.0 showing in October, down from 48.6 in September and the third month in a row the index has been below 50.0. Numbers above 50 signify manufacturing growth while numbers below 50 signify contraction.

The outlook wasn’t much brighter in the United States, where the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey showed U.S. factory activity in October grew at its slowest pace since May 2013. The ISM index slipped to 50.1 in October, from 50.2 in September, as manufacturers pared stockpiles and cut jobs.

Worries over global growth, particularly in China, had rattled financial markets in recent months, despite steps by the Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction