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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2014 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD is flat at 1.1160 as the CAD remains near a record low against the dollar. The increase in crude oil prices is
The USD/CAD is flat at 1.1160 as the CAD remains near a record low against the dollar. The increase in crude oil prices is the only thing helping to offset the strength of the US dollar. The Canadian dollar closed little changed after sustaining a series of jolts as the greenback strengthened on speculation about when the U.S. Federal Reserve may start to raise interest rates.
The loonie was flat following a loss of 1.7 per cent last week. The currency has tumbled about two U.S. cents this month, pushing it to its lowest levels since the end of March. Markets have generally looked for the Fed to raise rates around the middle of 2015.
The greenback also found support as revised official data on Friday showed the world’s largest economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.6 per cent in the spring — the fastest pace in more than two years. But traders are looking for reassurance that job growth is also showing similar strong advances.
U.S. crude oil gained a couple of cents to $94.55 a barrel, after managing a modest rally on Monday. Brent nudged up 5 cents to $97.25 but remained uncomfortably close to its recent two-year low.
Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for their third monthly loss in a row due to ample supply and subdued demand in Europe and China.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
NZD |
Building Consents |
0.0% |
|
-1.7% |
||
|
JPY |
Household Spending |
-0.3% |
1.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production |
-1.5% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
50.2 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Retail Sales |
2.5% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
||
|
EUR |
French Cons. Spending |
0.7% |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
||
|
EUR |
German Unemployment |
13K |
-2K |
3K |
||
|
EUR |
German Unemployment |
6.7% |
6.7% |
6.7% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Business Investment |
3.3% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
||
|
GBP |
Current Account |
-23.1B |
-17.0B |
-20.5B |
||
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
3.2% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
||
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.5% |
11.5% |
11.5% |
||
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
|
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Wednesday, October 1 |
|||||||
|
|
Holiday |
China – National Day |
|||||
|
|
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
51.0 |
51.1 |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Ger. Manufacturing PMI |
|
50.3 |
50.3 |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
52.5 |
52.5 |
|
|
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employ |
|
210K |
204K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
58.5 |
59.0 |
||
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 01 09:03 Sweden Sek 1.75bn 3.5% June 2022 & Sek 1.75bn 2.5% May 2025 bonds
Oct 01 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 01 09:30 UK Gbp 4bn 2% Jul 2020 Gilts
Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations
Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027
Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct
Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08
Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction
Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10
Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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