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Barry Norman
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 54 points to trade at 1.1253 as the dollar regained momentum and crude oil prices tumbled. The Canadian Dollar has enjoyed gains from upbeat Canadian employment figures on Friday which consequently pulled down the Unemployment Rate. Unemployment was residing at 7.0% in August and economists had forecast it would remain the same in September. However, joblessness instead fell to 6.8%, a welcome surprise for the Canadian economy. September’s surge of 74.1K jobs smashed economists’ forecasts of only 20.0K and was far more favorable than August’s -11.0K contraction.

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Last week the unemployment rate fell to 6.8 percent last month, the lowest since December 2008 and down from 7 percent a month earlier, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The economy created 74,100 jobs, the majority in full-time employment, after recording a decline of 11,000 jobs in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 20,000 job increase and an unchanged unemployment rate, according to median forecasts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (

-2.1%

1.0%

1.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Sep)

5

 

7

 

 

  EUR

 

French CPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

French HICP (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

0.5%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (MoM) (Sep)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)

-0.6%

-0.4%

-1.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Conditions (Oct)

3.2

18.0

25.4

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Sentiment (Oct)

-3.6

1.0

6.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.8%

-1.6%

0.9%

 

 

  EUR

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment

4.1

7.1

14.2

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, October 15

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-35.0K

-37.2K

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi  

 

 

   

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

 

 

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