USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD added 73 points as Canadian oil continued to fall as the pair climbed to trade at 1.1323. "The sharp decline in

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 73 points as Canadian oil continued to fall as the pair climbed to trade at 1.1323. “The sharp decline in the price of oil will undoubtedly have an impact on the Canadian economy, as merchandise exports fall and new investment in the commodity sector may be delayed.” was said by a known market analyst. “However, the equally pronounced fall in the currency paired with relative strength in the US economy does help to provide a partial offset to help limit the damage.”

“The correlation between energy prices and the CAD have tightened in recent days, which will likely mean we reach our 2015Q1 USDCAD forecast of 1.15 sooner with a risk of an additional extension higher should oil prices fall further.”

After posting fresh multi-year highs just pips shy of 1.1400 the figure on Wednesday, spot was violently dragged more than a big following disappointing data from US retail sales in September, contracting more than expected. Ahead in the session, US industrial production (0.4% exp.) and Initial Claims (290K exp.) are due ahead of speeches by Fed members Bullard, Kocherlakota, Lockhart and Plosser.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
CNY	New Loans	857.2B	750.0B	702.5B
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	264K	290K	287K
CAD	Foreign Securities	10.28B	4.31B	5.20B
CAD	Manufacturing Sales	-3.3%	-2.0%	2.9%
USD	Industrial Production		0.4%	-0.1%
USD	Philadelphia Fed Index		20.0	22.5

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD		Building Permits (Sep)		1.029M	1.003M
USD		Building Permits (MoM)		2.8%	-5.6%
USD		Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD		Housing Starts (MoM)		4.8%	-14.4%
USD		Housing Starts (Sep)		1.004M	0.956M
CAD		Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.5%
CAD		Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)		2.0%	2.1%
CAD		CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.0%	0.0%
USD		Michigan Consumer		74.4	75.4
USD		Michigan Consumer		84.1	84.6