USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD remains flat at 1.1271 ahead of Canadian wholesale sales numbers due later in the trading day. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a negative note and declined around 1 percent in the last week on the back of statement from central bank officials stating that central bank need to consider with delaying of its final round of QE tapering. However, weak market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency coupled with favorable economic data from the country cushioned sharp negative movement in the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 84.53 and closed at 85.21.

The loonie dropped to its lowest level since 2009 on Wednesday, caught up in a sell-off that is dragging down the value of anything associated with crude oil. Nearing the end of the trading day, the loonie was basically flat and changing hands at 88.58 cents US. It had earlier dropped as low as 87.80, the lowest that Canada’s currency has been valued at since July 2009, when the loonie was on an upswing from its previous trough at around 76 cents during the recession. It ended up marching all the way to above $1.10 at that time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction