USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD eased by 31 points to trade at 1.1254 with no real direction or reason for the CAD to gather momentum as the US dollar is trading up this session and the climb in gold and oil has been scant. China said its economy expanded 7.3 percent year-on-year in July-September, its slowest since 2008 at the depths of the global financial crisis. The third-quarter figure announced was lower than the 7.5 percent expansion in the previous three months, although it exceeded the median forecast of 7.2 percent in an AFP survey of 17 economists. Investors will now turn their attention to US home sales later in the day.

The U.S. currency has lost roughly 2 per cent over the last 10 days on signs that global growth and inflation are faltering, fuelling doubts about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will be able to push ahead in the next year with its first post-financial crisis interest rate hike.

Bank of Governor Stephen Poloz and his senior deputy, Carolyn Wilkins, take center stage, first with a rate decision and monetary policy report on Wednesday morning, and then appearances before Commons and Senate committees Wednesday and Thursday.

Obviously there will be no change in the central bank’s benchmark overnight rate, but markets will be looking for any change in signal.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

There was no European data today.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction