USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD eased by 29 points to trade at 1.1218 ahead of the US FOMC meeting a slew of important US data due later today.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 29, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD eased by 29 points to trade at 1.1218 ahead of the US FOMC meeting a slew of important US data due later today. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-setting Open Market Committee (FOMC) starts a two-day meeting later in the day, and is widely expected to end its $4 trillion asset purchase program.

Most investors also expect the FOMC to keep its key policy language unchanged in its statement, with the phrase “a considerable amount of time” being retained with respect to the timing of a rise in interest rates.

A slight uptick in the price of crude oil and Brent oil also helped support the Canadian dollar today.

The Bank of Canada’s latest Monetary Policy Report includes a detailed examination of Canada’s export weakness. A weaker Canadian dollar received credit for recent improvement in exports but lack of competitiveness is blamed for on-going excess capacity. Comments from the head of the Bank of Canada helped give the currency a bit of momentum. Poloz noted that Canadian exports are finally doing well, partially thanks to a weaker Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada has completed a detailed study on exports that demonstrates that the export sector still has a long way to go to return to its previous health.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)	2.3%	0.6%	1.2%
USD	Core Durable Goods		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Durable Goods Orders		0.5%	-18.4%
USD	S&P/CS HPI Composite –		5.8%	6.7%
USD	CB Con. Confidence		87.0	86.0

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Time	Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	JPY		Industrial Production		2.2%	-1.9%
	NZD		Business Confidence			13.4%
	CAD		RMPI (MoM) (Sep)		-1.0%	-2.2%
	USD		FOMC Statement
	USD		Fed Funds Target Rate		0.25%	0.25%