USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 9, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD moved up along with the US dollar to trade at 1.1170 ahead of Canadian housing starts and the FOMC minutes release.  The dollar’s was pressured by stock market slumps both in Japan and abroad as well as by a fall in long-term U.S. interest rates. The risk aversion was triggered in part by the International Monetary Fund’s latest economic growth forecasts as well as a fall in German industrial production in August. The IMF lowered its global growth projection by 0.1 point to 3.3 percent for 2014 and by 0.2 point to 3.8 percent for 2015. Canada is among a group of advanced economies along with Britain, Norway and some others that the IMF characterized as “solid.” The IMF raised its outlook for Canada’s GDP growth this year to 2.3 per cent and in 2015 to 2.4 per cent, from 2.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

Yesterday, the loonie surged by about a penny, largely because of a pause in the rally of the U.S. dollar. Today’s moves haven’t been as extreme, though the Canadian dollar has seen a high. The market is in the midst of a USD bull rally; however the fundamental change is also driving higher volatility and uncertainty.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction