USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – September 4, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Sep 3, 2015, 11:34 GMT+00:00

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD added 2 points to 1.3272 as oil prices weakened along with gold today. There is little on the calendar with

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – September 4, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 2 points to 1.3272 as oil prices weakened along with gold today. There is little on the calendar with China on holiday. The big event today is the ECB press conference as traders prepare for tomorrow’s NFP. The Canadian dollar edged up against its major rivals in European deals trimming early losses, after data showed that the economy grew at a faster pace in June, following a decline in five consecutive months.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that real gross domestic product rose 0.5% in June. The increase in June was broad based, led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and, to a lesser extent, wholesale trade, the finance and insurance sector as well as arts and entertainment. This was up from forecasts for an increase of 0.2%, following a 0.2% decline in May.

Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices kept the currency’s gains in check. The oil prices fell sharply, as weak Chinese manufacturing data for August reinforced concerns over the world’s second-largest economy.

Earlier this week the official gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity slumped to a three-year low in August and Caixin’s final August PMI number indicated that activity in China’s vast factory sector shrank at its fastest pace in almost six-and-a-half years in the month, raising fears of a hard landing for the world’s second largest economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Victory Day
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	-0.1%	0.4%	0.6%
GBP	Services PMI (Aug)	57.6	57.6	57.4
EUR	Interest Rate Decision (Sep)	0.05%	0.05%	0.05%
EUR	ECB Press Conference

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, September 4, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Victory Day
USD	FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul)		-0.6%	2.0%
CHF	CPI (MoM) (Aug)		-0.2%	-0.6%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.3%	0.3%
USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)		220K	215K
USD	Participation Rate (Aug)			62.6%
USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)		215K	210K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Aug)		5.2%	5.3%
CAD	Employment Change (Aug)		-4.5K	6.6K
CAD	Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q2)		-0.6%	-0.1%
CAD	Unemployment Rate (Aug)		6.8%	6.8%
RUB	CPI (MoM)		0.1%	0.8%
RUB	CPI (YoY)		15.6%	15.6%
CAD	Ivey PMI (Aug)		52.0	52.9