USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

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Published: Sep 10, 2016, 07:10 GMT+00:00

The USD/CAD closed at 1.3049 after a mixed jobs report on Friday and a lack of action by the Bank of Canada this week. The CAD normally supported by gold

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

The USD/CAD closed at 1.3049 after a mixed jobs report on Friday and a lack of action by the Bank of Canada this week. The CAD normally supported by gold and oil lacked their support this week. The rally in the greenback late on Friday helped the pair to gain almost 1% for the week. This week the Loonie is neutral with a lack of data in Canada and little US data until Friday as FOMC members move into blackout mode after one last speech on Monday. The currency extended its loss this quarter, the worst performance among Group-of-10 peers, even after a report showed the nation added jobs in August following a surprise decline in July. Crude oil, the nation’s second largest export, fell 2.5 percent, snapping a four-day rally.

The loonie has weakened in recent days as the BOC acknowledged risks for the nation’s economy, increasing the divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the North American neighbors. In the U.S., Federal Reserve policy makers are considering when to raise interest rates.

Employment in Canada grew by 26,000 in August, Statistics Canada said Friday — a much stronger number than economists had been expecting.

Still, the country’s unemployment rate rose a notch to 7 per cent as more people entered the workforce to look for jobs, the statistical agency said.

Beneath the headline number, the details were even stronger: Canada added 52,000 full-time jobs, while shedding 26,000 part-time jobs, suggesting an improving labour market. It more than offset the large 31,000-job decline the month before. A poll by Thomson Reuters showed economists expecting a much timider 15,000 net increase in the number of jobs this month.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date	Country	Name	Volatility	Previous	Consensus
9/13/2016	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index	3	1.3	1.4
9/13/2016	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.6	0.7
9/13/2016	EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
9/13/2016	EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic	3	4.6	6.7
9/14/2016	NZD	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	3	2.8
9/15/2016	AUD	Employment Change	3	26.2	15
9/15/2016	AUD	Unemployment Rate	3	5.7	5.7
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision	3	-0.75	-0.75
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB press conference	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Facility	3	435	435
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3	0.25	0.25
9/15/2016	GBP	Monetary Policy Summary	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Cut	3	9	0
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Unchanged	3	0	9
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Hike	3	0	0
9/15/2016	GBP	Bank of England Minutes	3
9/15/2016	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	3	0	0
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.8	1
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index ECORE	3	2.2	2.2
9/16/2016	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	3	89.8	91

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 12 11:30 Germany Eur 2bn Mar 2017 Bubill

Sep 12 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 14

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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Barry Normanauthor

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