USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

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Published: Sep 12, 2016, 11:34 GMT+00:00

The USD/CAD added 28 points as oil prices tanked and gold eased. The Loonie is trading at 1.3077 as commodities around the globe fall while the greenback

The USD/CAD added 28 points as oil prices tanked and gold eased. The Loonie is trading at 1.3077 as commodities around the globe fall while the greenback rallied on Friday as it looks like the Fed will consider a rate increase this month. Oil prices fell as US production soared data showed last week.

US Dollar is gaining on its Canadian counterpart after upbeat US jobless claims data and a more disappointing building permits report from Canada.

The US Department of Labor said initial jobless claims in the week ending September 3 decreased by 4,000 to 259,000 from the previous week’s total of 263,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 265,000 last week.

On the other hand, Statistics Canada reported that building permits rose 0.8% in July, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain. Building permits dropped 5.3% in June, which figure was revised from a previously estimated 5.5% decline. Also, the new housing price index improved from 0.1% to 0.4% month-on-month while the yearly score improved from 22.5% to 2.8%. Investors hesitated to buy into the Canadian Dollar as other risky currencies appeared more appealing.

“Crude oil is lower and the data will do nothing to alter the BOC’s thinking on the economy,” said the chief foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto. “The messaging was clear from the policy statement that risks to the outlook are tilting lower. One month’s data point, however good, does not change that.”

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September 13, 2016

CNY	FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) Y	2	4.3
AUD	RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech	2
CNY	Retail Sales Y	2	10.2	10.3
CNY	Industrial Production Y	2	6	6.1
EUR	Wholesale Price Index M	2	0.2
EUR	Wholesale Price Index Y	2	-1.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index Y	2	0.4	0.4
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices M	2	-0.1	-0.1
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices Y	2	0.3	0.3
EUR	Consumer Price Index M	2	0.1	0
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input M	2	3.3	0.5
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input Y	2	4.3	8.1
GBP	PPI Core Output Y	2	1	1.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output M	2	0.3	0.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output Y	2	0.3	1.1
GBP	PPI Core Output M	2	0.4	0.2
GBP	Consumer Price Index M	2	-0.1	0.4
GBP	Consumer Price Index Y	3	0.6	0.7
GBP	Core Consumer Price Index Y	3	1.3	1.4
EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	3	4.6	6.7
EUR	ZEW Survey – Current Situation	2	57.6	56
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	2	0.5	2.5
USD	10-Year Note Auction	2	1.503
USD	Monthly Budget Statement	2	-113

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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