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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 3 – 7, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD was the worst performer this week as it continues to break records. The Looney just can’t get a break.
The USD/CAD was the worst performer this week as it continues to break records. The Looney just can’t get a break. The Canadian dollar closed higher Friday amid data showing the economy continued to register respectable growth in November.Statistics Canada reported that gross domestic product grew by 0.2 per cent, which was in line with expectations. That was down slightly from a 0.3 per cent gain in October. “The slowing in November GDP was not unexpected after very strong increases in October and September of 0.3 per cent,” observed RBC Economics assistant chief economist Paul Farley.
“There is the risk of a more pronounced slowing in December for which inclement weather in the final two weekends before Christmas may even result in activity declining marginally in the month.” The U.S. dollar had been higher earlier in the morning with traders in a risk-averse mood after data raised worries about the eurozone slipping into deflation.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jan 31, 2014 |
1.1120 |
1.1158 |
1.1224 |
1.1090 |
-0.34% |
|
Jan 30, 2014 |
1.1158 |
1.1183 |
1.1199 |
1.1151 |
-0.22% |
|
Jan 29, 2014 |
1.1183 |
1.1146 |
1.1187 |
1.1103 |
0.33% |
|
Jan 28, 2014 |
1.1146 |
1.1116 |
1.1177 |
1.1078 |
0.27% |
|
Jan 27, 2014 |
1.1116 |
1.1062 |
1.1120 |
1.1032 |
0.48% |
Expect German industrial production to have increased by 0.2% MoM in December. Our estimate is based on a stabilization of the IFO climate index at high levels and a modest increase in manufacturing orders for December. New factory orders will reflect the strength of industrial activity with probably a new high for the past two years.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.1224 CAD on Jan 31, 2014
Average: 1.0042 CAD over this period
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jul 26, 2011
Major Economic Events for the week of January 27 – 31 actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jan. 27 |
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
414K |
457K |
445K |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
-7.0% |
-1.3% |
-3.9% |
|
Jan. 28 |
13:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-4.3% |
1.8% |
2.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (YoY) |
13.7% |
13.7% |
13.6% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
80.7 |
78.1 |
77.5 |
|
Jan. 29 |
19:00 |
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Jan. 30 |
01:45 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.5 |
49.6 |
49.6 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
348K |
330K |
329K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
1.3% |
1.3% |
2.0% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
3.2% |
3.2% |
4.1% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-8.7% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
Jan. 31 |
13:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
GDP (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
59.6 |
59.0 |
60.8 |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
81.2 |
81.0 |
80.4 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the American and Canadian Markets
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 03 |
13:15 |
USD |
238K |
||
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
56.0 |
56.5 |
|
|
Feb. 05 |
01:45 |
CNY |
50.9 |
||
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
180K |
238K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
3.0% |
-6.7% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.5 |
53.0 |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
55.6 |
||
|
Feb. 06 |
13:30 |
USD |
2.5% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
-1.00B |
-0.94B |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-36.10B |
-34.30B |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
-1.4% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
40.00B |
39.78B |
|
|
|
15:00 |
CAD |
50.0 |
46.3 |
|
|
Feb. 07 |
01:45 |
CNY |
50.9 |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
18.0K |
-45.9K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
185K |
74K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
188K |
87K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Feb 03 10:00 Norway
Feb 03 10:03 Sweden
Feb 04 10:03 Sweden
Feb 04 10:15 Austria
Feb 04 10:30 Belgium
Feb 04 10:30 UK
Feb 05 10:30 Germany
Feb 05 16:00 US
Feb 06 09:30 Spain
Feb 06 10:03 Sweden
Feb 07 10:03 Sweden
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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