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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 2 – 6, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD ended the week on a positive note at 1.0846 even though crude oil and gold declined for the week.
The USD/CAD ended the week on a positive note at 1.0846 even though crude oil and gold declined for the week. Analysts forecast for Canadian GDP growth is unchanged from last month. The economy is expected to advance 2.2% this year and 2.5% in 2015, as strengthening global growth leads to a gradual pickup in exports and business investment. At the same time, sluggish job growth and increased household debt aversion are expected to keep consumer and housing activity on a moderate growth path. Rising energy prices contributed to a notable improvement in Canadian terms-of-trade in the first quarter, lifting the goods balance back into a surplus position for the first time in more than two years.
Traders have upgraded our Canadian trade and current account forecasts accordingly. In Canada, monthly data pointing to stronger federal revenue growth in the 4½% range for fiscal 2013-14 (FY14) are encouraging for the major deficit reduction forecast for FY15. In the United States, ahead of the November elections, a number of State Budgets are expected to be slightly less cautious for their upcoming fiscal year.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
May 30, 2014 |
1.0846 |
1.0839 |
1.0865 |
1.0822 |
0.06% |
|
May 29, 2014 |
1.0839 |
1.0873 |
1.0878 |
1.0826 |
-0.30% |
|
May 28, 2014 |
1.0872 |
1.0856 |
1.0887 |
1.0844 |
0.15% |
|
May 27, 2014 |
1.0856 |
1.0858 |
1.0875 |
1.0836 |
-0.01% |
|
May 26, 2014 |
1.0857 |
1.0872 |
1.0873 |
1.0853 |
-0.14% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.1004 CAD on May 02, 2014
Average: 1.0042 CAD over this period
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jul 26, 2011
Major Economic Events for the week of May 26 – 30 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
May 26 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
8.5 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
May 27 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
42.2K |
45.2K |
45.0K |
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
2.9% |
|
|
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.8% |
-0.5% |
3.6% |
|
|
USD |
S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 (YoY) |
12.4% |
11.8% |
12.9% |
|
|
May 28 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
May 29 |
EUR |
Spanish GDP (QoQ) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
3.01% |
3.22% |
||
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
300K |
318K |
327K |
|
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
1.3% |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
-1.0% |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
1.0% |
3.4% |
|
|
May 30 |
EUR |
German Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.9% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
65.5 |
61.0 |
63.0 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
81.9 |
82.5 |
81.8 |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Expectations |
73.7 |
74.0 |
73.2 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 02 |
EUR |
53.0 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
53.5 |
54.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
49.3 |
49.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.9 |
52.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
52.5 |
52.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
57.3 |
||
|
|
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
55.4 |
54.9 |
|
|
|
USD |
55.7 |
54.7 |
|
|
Jun. 03 |
CNY |
49.7 |
||
|
|
GBP |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
GBP |
10.9% |
10.9% |
|
|
|
GBP |
60.8 |
||
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
|
Jun. 04 |
EUR |
56.5 |
56.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
51.5 |
51.1 |
|
|
|
EUR |
49.2 |
49.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
56.4 |
56.4 |
|
|
|
EUR |
53.5 |
53.5 |
|
|
|
GBP |
58.7 |
||
|
|
EUR |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
225K |
220K |
|
|
|
USD |
-2.0% |
-1.7% |
|
|
|
USD |
-40.10B |
-40.40B |
|
|
|
USD |
4.5% |
4.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
55.5 |
55.2 |
|
|
|
USD |
51.3 |
||
|
Jun. 05 |
CNY |
51.4 |
||
|
|
EUR |
1.2% |
-2.8% |
|
|
|
EUR |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
GBP |
375B |
||
|
|
EUR |
0.10% |
0.25% |
|
|
Jun. 06 |
EUR |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
15.2B |
14.8B |
|
|
|
GBP |
-8.48B |
||
|
|
USD |
215K |
288K |
|
|
|
USD |
224K |
273K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Jun 03 00:30 Japan
Jun 03 09:15 Austria
Jun 03 09:30 Belgium
Jun 03 09:30 UK
Jun 03 14:30 UK
Jun 04 09:03 Sweden
Jun 04 09:30 Germany
Jun 04 10:00 Norway
Jun 05 00:30 Japan
Jun 05 08:30 Spain
Jun 05 08:50 France
Jun 05 13:20 Sweden
Jun 06 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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