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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 9 – 13, 2014 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD was weaker at the close of the trading week ending at 1.0935 after opening on Monday at 1.0845. Governor
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD was weaker at the close of the trading week ending at 1.0935 after opening on Monday at 1.0845. Governor Stephen Poloz held its neutral stance, giving no signal as to where its benchmark interest rate could be headed, or when. As expected, it held the key overnight rate at just 1 per cent. “Global economic growth in the first quarter of 2014 was weaker than anticipated in the [monetary policy report] and recent developments give slightly greater weight to downside risks,” the Bank of Canada said.
“The U.S. economy is rebounding after a pause in the first quarter, but there could be slightly less underlying momentum than previously expected.” Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a deficit of C$638 million ($584 million), after a revised surplus of C$766 million in March, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a C$200 million surplus, based on the median of 19 forecasts.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jun 06, 2014 |
1.0935 |
1.0922 |
1.0948 |
1.0910 |
0.12% |
|
Jun 05, 2014 |
1.0922 |
1.0943 |
1.0960 |
1.0917 |
-0.19% |
|
Jun 04, 2014 |
1.0943 |
1.0918 |
1.0955 |
1.0917 |
0.23% |
|
Jun 03, 2014 |
1.0918 |
1.0902 |
1.0922 |
1.0891 |
0.15% |
|
Jun 02, 2014 |
1.0902 |
1.0845 |
1.0912 |
1.0843 |
0.53% |
Gross domestic product grew at a 1.2 percent annualized pace in January through March, compared with a downwardly revised 2.7 percent in the prior three months, a report last week showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted growth would slow to a 1.8 percent pace.
A report Friday will show hiring rebounded in May with 25,000 new positions created after the country lost 28,900 jobs the previous month, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 1.0960 CAD on Jun 05, 2014
Average: 1.0042 CAD over this period
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jul 26, 2011
Major Economic Events for the week of June 2-6 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 02 |
EUR |
Spanish Manufacturing PMI |
52.9 |
52.9 |
52.7 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
53.2 |
53.7 |
54.0 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
49.6 |
49.3 |
49.3 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
52.3 |
52.9 |
52.9 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
52.2 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
57.0 |
57.0 |
57.3 |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
55.4 |
55.5 |
54.9 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Employment |
52.8 |
55.0 |
54.7 |
|
Jun. 03 |
CNY |
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI |
55.5 |
54.8 |
|
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
49.4 |
49.7 |
49.7 |
|
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (YoY) |
11.1% |
10.9% |
10.9% |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
-111.9K |
-112.3K |
-111.6K |
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
60.0 |
60.8 |
60.8 |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
0.7% |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.5% |
1.5% |
|
Jun. 04 |
EUR |
Spanish Services PMI |
55.7 |
56.1 |
56.5 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Services PMI |
51.6 |
51.5 |
51.1 |
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
49.1 |
49.2 |
49.2 |
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
56.0 |
56.4 |
56.4 |
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI |
53.2 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
|
|
GBP |
Services PMI |
58.6 |
58.2 |
58.7 |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
EUR |
GDP (YoY) |
0.9% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
179K |
210K |
215K |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
-3.2% |
-2.7% |
-1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-47.24B |
-40.80B |
-44.18B |
|
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
5.7% |
5.0% |
4.2% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
56.3 |
55.5 |
55.2 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment |
52.4 |
51.3 |
|
|
Jun. 05 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Services PMI |
50.7 |
51.4 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
3.1% |
1.3% |
-2.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
3.9% |
0.7% |
-0.3% |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (YoY) |
8.7% |
7.4% |
8.5% |
|
|
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.15% |
0.10% |
0.25% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
312K |
310K |
304K |
|
Jun. 06 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
-0.6% |
|
|
EUR |
German Trade Balance |
17.7B |
15.2B |
15.0B |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.92B |
-8.65B |
-8.29B |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
217K |
218K |
282K |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
216K |
210K |
270K |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 10 |
CNY |
2.4% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
CNY |
-1.5% |
-2.0% |
|
|
|
CNY |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
GBP |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
Jun. 11 |
GBP |
-25.0K |
-25.1K |
|
|
|
USD |
-147.5B |
106.9B |
|
|
Jun. 12 |
GBP |
52% |
54% |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.1% |
||
|
|
EUR |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.4% |
||
|
|
USD |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.6% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
Jun. 13 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
||
|
|
CNY |
17.1% |
17.3% |
|
|
|
CNY |
8.8% |
8.7% |
|
|
|
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
EUR |
0.9% |
||
|
|
EUR |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
USD |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
USD |
83.0 |
81.9 |
|
|
|
USD |
75.0 |
73.7 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Country
June 11 USD
June 12 Italy
June 12 Spain
June 12 USD
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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