USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 03:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD gained on Friday to close the week at 1.1241 after the Bank of Canada meeting and stronger US data. The

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 27-31, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD gained on Friday to close the week at 1.1241 after the Bank of Canada meeting and stronger US data. The dollar weakened against other major currencies on Friday in cautious trade ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, expected to mark an end to its massive asset-purchase program.

Crude oil and gold both ended the week on down notes weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar. Traders also looked ahead to the first reading of third-quarter gross domestic product in the United States and August GDP data for Canada.

The oil boom that powered Canada’s recovery from its 2009 recession is turning into a bust for the nation’s dollar. Canada’s currency tumbled this month to a five-year low of C$1.1385 per U.S. dollar as the price of oil, the country’s biggest export, fell 30% from a June peak. Without a sustained increase in crude, the local dollar will weaken at least another 4% to C$1.18, according to Toronto-Dominion Bank and Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s two biggest lenders.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 1.1270 CAD – October 2014

Average: 1.0042 CAD over this period

Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jul 26, 2011

Major Economic Events for the week of October 27-31st

Time	Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Monday, October 27
		Holiday	New Zealand – Labour Day
	EUR		German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct)		104.3	104.7
	USD		Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep)		0.5%	-1.0%
Tuesday, October 28
	USD		Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)		0.5%	0.4%
	USD		CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)		87.0	86.0
Wednesday, October 29
	NZD		Interest Rate Decision		3.50%	3.50%
Thursday, October 30
	EUR		German Unemployment Change (Oct)		5K	13K
	USD		GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		3.0%	4.6%
Friday, October 31
	EUR		CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.4%	0.3%
	CAD		GDP (MoM) (Aug)