USD/CNY Fundamental Forecast – April 27, 2016

The USD/CNY gained 2 points to 6.4932 after the fixing by the PBOC. There was little action and no data out of China. According to Reuters The yuan edged lower against the dollar after the central bank fixed the softest midpoint this month as the dollar rallied from last week’s trough.

Prior to the market’s open, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.5120 per dollar, 0.34 percent weaker than the previous fix 6.4898, reflecting the dollar index’s gain of 0.5 percent against a basket of major currencies on Friday. The spot market opened at 6.5051 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.5063 at midday, easing 0.07 percent from the previous close.

Traders reported a bout of dollar-selling around 6.5080 before trading stabilized near 6.5050 with the dollar index’s recovery losing some steam towards noon.

China’s yuan has lost more than 1.5 percent of its value against the US dollar since the start of 2016. The yuan’s January devaluation by the People’s Bank of China was the largest since August 2015, when the currency shed over 3 percent of its value against the dollar, triggering a stock market slump around the world.

This week there is a very heavy, central-bank-dominated calendar with the US Fed, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Japan all in action,” Innes said. “While most of the focus will centre on possible policy action from the BoJ, traders will be looking for forward guidance from both the Fed and RBNZ.

South China Morning reported that Linus Yip, chief strategist at First Shanghai Securities, said he expected a generally stable mainland China currency because he did not expect an interest rate increase would be announced in the United States this week, but agreed that a temporarily bumpy ride was unavoidable.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Apr 26 11:10 Italy Holds BTP€i auction

Apr 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year note auction

Apr 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Apr 27 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ auction

Apr 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Apr 27 19:00 US 2-year FRN, 5-year note auctions

Apr 28 11:10 Italy Holds 5yr/10yr bond auctions

Apr 28 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction