USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD Forecast: USD Stability, AUD Gains, and NZD Awaits Direction

Key Insights

• USD holds steady as economic data suggests Fed may pause rate hikes.
• AUD and NZD decline amid regional equity drops and global dollar strength.
• Australia’s job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment rate sees slight increase.
• USDJPY maintains level against euro, sees slight decline against yen.
• AUD’s unexpected employment spike contrasts with cooling labor market signals.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. dollar exhibited resilience amidst recent market tumult, hinting at a potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. Amidst this, the risk-sensitive AUD and NZD fell in response to a drop in regional stocks.

The dollar maintained its level against the euro at $1.08425 and slightly weakened against the yen to 151.15. The dollar index modestly increased by 0.11% to 104.43 after recovering from a significant fall.

Australian employment outperformed expectations with 55,000 new jobs in October, surpassing the anticipated 20,000 and indicating a robust participation rate.

Despite this, the rise in unemployment to 3.7% and the slowdown in hours worked suggest an overall cooling in the labor market, contrasting with the strong growth earlier in the year.

The nuanced economic data contributes to a complex forecast for the USD against the AUD and NZD, with potential for increased market sensitivity to future economic indicators.

USD/JPY Prices Forecast

In the realm of forex trading, the USD/JPY pair exhibits a poised stance, currently trading at 151.285, a marginal uptick from the previous session. The 4-hour chart showcases a pivot point at 150.942, indicating a potential fulcrum for the next price movement.

Immediate resistance for the pair is identified at 151.799, with subsequent thresholds at 152.367 and 152.000, which may serve as targets for bullish advances. On the downside, support is envisaged at 150.225, with deeper safety nets at 149.658 and 148.816 in case of a retreat.

The RSI, lingering at 48.37, suggests a market in equilibrium, flirting with the edge of bullish sentiment. The MACD’s current trajectory implies a nascent bullish trend as it closes the gap towards the signal line, suggesting an incipient positive momentum.

Observing the 50-day EMA at 150.942, we notice the price oscillating slightly above this level, hinting at a tentative bullish trend in the short term. In conclusion, while the USD/JPY’s immediate trajectory appears bullish, the market remains vigilant, with the potential for both continuity in the upward channel or a reversion to test the established support levels.

AUD/USD Prices Forecast

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading at 0.64688 USD, showing a slight decrease of 0.19% on the 4-hour chart. The currency pair’s near-term fate hinges on key technical levels, with immediate support at 0.63956 and a pivot point at 0.64291. If bearish trends prevail, further support at 0.63170 may come into play.

Conversely, resistance is observed at 0.65208 and 0.65552, with a stronger barrier at 0.66128 potentially capping upward movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.79 suggests the AUD/USD is neither overbought nor oversold, allowing for movement in either direction.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a balanced market sentiment, while the currency’s position relative to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) suggests a mild bullish inclination in the short term.

Chart analysis shows the AUD/USD pair consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, indicating a breakout could be imminent. As traders monitor these developments, the overall trend for the AUD/USD appears cautiously optimistic, with a breakout above the upper bounds of the triangle potentially signaling a move towards higher resistance levels.

NZD/USD Prices Forecast

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) is exhibiting a complex technical pattern against the US Dollar, with the current trading price slightly down by 0.16% at 0.59798. A notable feature on the 4-hour chart is the formation of a double top pattern at 0.60528, indicating potential for a bearish reversal if the pattern confirms with a break below the intervening trough.

Technical levels to watch include immediate support at the EMA 50 close of 0.59363, with further downside protection potentially at 0.59019 and 0.58559. Resistance lies ahead at 0.60528, and a breach here could open the path to 0.61000.

The RSI, currently at 63, signals bullish momentum without being overextended. The price action remains above the EMA 50, reinforcing the current uptrend, but the double top pattern cautions of a possible change in sentiment.

In summary, the NZD/USD pair’s outlook is cautiously optimistic, with an acknowledgment of the bearish risk posed by the double top formation. The near-term direction may hinge on whether the support levels can hold against any selling pressure.

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