USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 11, 2015, 04:58 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY was completely flat at 124.63 while it traded near its highest level as the dollar gained momentum on an

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY was completely flat at 124.63 while it traded near its highest level as the dollar gained momentum on an undecided Federal Reserve. Consumer confidence tumbled in July to the lowest in six months, raising the risk of weakness in spending that could weigh on the economy this quarter.

An index of confidence dropped to 40.3 from 41.7 in June, according to data released on Monday by the Cabinet Office. A separate survey on the outlook for economic conditions over the next few months fell to the lowest since January.

Bank of Japan officials are assessing the strength of a rebound in the economy from an estimated slump last quarter. Worsening sentiment could damp personal consumption, which has failed to fully recover from a consumption-tax hike last year.

BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said on July 15 that he didn’t think “at all” that weakness last quarter would continue. Last week after the central bank kept its unprecedented monetary stimulus policy unchanged, he said that he needed to see “hard” data to determine the strength of spending in July.

The dollar jumped to a two-month high of ¥125.07 in New York on Friday on the Labor Department report that U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July increased by 215,000 month on month after seasonal adjustment. The growth was smaller than market expectations, but topped the key 200,000 threshold for the third consecutive month.

But the greenback soon came under profit-taking pressure and sagged below ¥124.50.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B