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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 20, 2015, 04:46 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY  dipped under the 124 support level after the release of Fed minutes sent the dollar on a downward spiral. The

USD/JPY

usdjpy thursday bnsnla
Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY  dipped under the 124 support level after the release of Fed minutes sent the dollar on a downward spiral. The pair is trading at 123.93 recovering a bit in the Asian session as traders repositioned themselves. The U.S. dollar traded in the upper 123 yen range early Thursday morning in Tokyo, sharply lower from its levels the previous day following a Federal Reserve policy meeting overnight that suggested the U.S. central bank may not be ready yet for an interest rate hike next month.

Analysts show traders see a 38 percent probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after the first increase. That’s down from about 50 percent before the minutes were released. The key rate has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

Concerns about slowing growth in China pressured Asian shares and oil prices, while minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting dented expectations for a rate hike in mid-September.

Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3 per cent in early trade while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat, barely holding above its two-year low hit on Wednesday for now.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German PPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks  

 

 

 

   

 

usdjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 21, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 

 

47.7

47.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

51.7

51.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Aug)  

 

53.9

53.8

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

52.2

52.4

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (Aug)  

 

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (Aug)  

 

54.0

54.0

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

 

2.4%

2.3%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.0%

0.0%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.5%

0.9%

 

 

  CAD

 

CPI (MoM) (Jul)

 

0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

 

0.2%

1.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Manufacturing PMI (Aug)  

 

54.0

53.8

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug

 

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