Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY dipped under the 124 support level after the release of Fed minutes sent the dollar on a downward spiral. The
The USD/JPY dipped under the 124 support level after the release of Fed minutes sent the dollar on a downward spiral. The pair is trading at 123.93 recovering a bit in the Asian session as traders repositioned themselves. The U.S. dollar traded in the upper 123 yen range early Thursday morning in Tokyo, sharply lower from its levels the previous day following a Federal Reserve policy meeting overnight that suggested the U.S. central bank may not be ready yet for an interest rate hike next month.
Analysts show traders see a 38 percent probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after the first increase. That’s down from about 50 percent before the minutes were released. The key rate has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
Concerns about slowing growth in China pressured Asian shares and oil prices, while minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting dented expectations for a rate hike in mid-September.
Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3 per cent in early trade while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat, barely holding above its two-year low hit on Wednesday for now.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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USD |
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks |
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EUR |
German PPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
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JPY |
BoJ Press Conference |
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USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Friday, August 21, 2015
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
47.7 |
47.8 |
|
||
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
51.7 |
51.8 |
|
||
EUR |
German Services PMI (Aug) |
|
53.9 |
53.8 |
|
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EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
52.2 |
52.4 |
|
||
EUR |
Markit Composite PMI (Aug) |
|
53.8 |
53.9 |
|
||
EUR |
Services PMI (Aug) |
|
54.0 |
54.0 |
|
||
CAD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
|
2.4% |
2.3% |
|
||
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
||
CAD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
||
CAD |
CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
|
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
||
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) |
|
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
||
USD |
Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
|
54.0 |
53.8 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt
Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug