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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast

Barry Norman

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY was down by 8 points matching the decline of the US dollar this morning seeming to ignore the mixed data that hit the wires, which showed a jump in retail sales and a slightly higher inflation rate. The pair edged to 120.95 on the recovering US dollar. US GDP released yesterday brought the possibility of a Fed increase back into the picture. The better-than-expected retail sales reading failed to comfort economists, however.

“The retail sales number is good but it may also be driven partly because of a weaker yen and tourism, and not really due to domestic factors,” an analyst.

“Overall domestic demand is one of the key concerns in the recovery,” he said.

Earlier this week, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sought to reassure investors that the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target could be achieved by next year despite weaker oil prices.

Consumer prices in Japan were unchanged from a year earlier in July, underscoring the struggle the Bank of Japan (BOJ) faces in achieving its 2 percent inflation target and building the case for additional monetary stimulus.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile prices of fresh food but includes prices of oil products, was flat in July from the year-ago period, government data showed on Friday, compared with Reuters’ forecast for a drop of 0.2 percent and down from a 0.1 percent rise in June.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

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