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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY continues to climb trading at 83.88 headed toward recent record highs. The Bank of Japan continues to dump additional stimulus in the economy as elections loom closer.  Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is expected to topple the existing regime in this weekend’s general election. Mr. Abe is seen as an advocate for more central bank asset purchases in a bid to revive an economy that’s sharply deteriorated since last year’s earthquake and tsunami.

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The USD maintained its recent gains and approached the 2012 high at 84.18. Fundamentals are likely to provide for some movement in JPY over the next 24 hours, however, political and BoJ risk remain the key drivers of movement ahead of this weekend’s election. JPY has declined 8.0% since early October,  falling at a slightly slower pace than the 10.7% depreciation seen over the course of February and early March

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

SGD

 

 

Singaporean Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.0%

 

-1.5% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian WPI (YoY) 

7.24%

 

7.57% 

 

7.45% 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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