USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 20, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY is trading at 82.45, as the JPY remains weak with Japanese elections on Dec. 16 expected to hand victory to the

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis December 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 82.45, as the JPY remains weak with Japanese elections on Dec. 16 expected to hand victory to the opposition LDP party, which has vowed to weaken the yen even if it means interest rates go negative. If the yen tumbles farther the carry trade will go through the roof and exporters to Japan will be under enormous pressure.

US House of Representatives Speaker and senior Republican John Boehner told Fox News at the weekend that talks on averting the fiscal cliff – US$607 billion of spending cuts and tax hikes that kick in on Jan. 1 – were “nowhere.” Republicans and the White House have been trading blame over the lack of

US payrolls round out the week. The US economy added 90,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since June, according to a Bloomberg survey. Jobs growth is expected to have been hampered by disruptions from Hurricane Sandy.

Traders have been abandoning the yen and moving to safe havens at present, including gold, though markets are looking for more risk on positive sentiment.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 03

KRW

South Korean Trade Balance

4.47B

3.65B

3.70B

KRW

South Korean HSBC Manufacturing PMI

48.16

47.37

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-0.3%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

0.5%

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

-2.90%

-4.60%

CNY

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.60

55.50

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

50.50

50.40

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 04	00:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-2.0%	7.8%
	00:30	AUD	Current Account	-14.8B	-11.8B
	03:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.25%
Dec. 05	00:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.6%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	125K	158K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.7%	1.9%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-0.9%	-0.1%
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.5	54.2
	20:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Dec. 07	00:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.05B	-1.46B