USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 12, 2015, 04:54 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY added 1 point against a weaker US dollar as the yen declined due to traders believing that the Bank of Japan

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY added 1 point against a weaker US dollar as the yen declined due to traders believing that the Bank of Japan would add additional stimulus at its next meeting regardless of the comments from the head of the bank. Japan is easing into a recession and inflation continues to decline. The pair is trading at 122.87.

Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada helped explain why the central bank held fire at its October 30 meeting. He acknowledged as much, saying his outlook on the economy and inflation is “slightly weaker” than the central bank’s. He also cited a number of overseas risks: slowing emerging markets, especially China; an “unexpected shock” from the US lifting interest rates, or Europe’s debt crisis resurfacing.

In the event these events hurt Japan, the BoJ “should implement additional monetary easing without any hesitation,” he said.

The BOJ cut its inflation forecasts on Oct. 30 and pushed back the timing for hitting its price target by six months. But it held off on expanding stimulus, blaming sluggish price growth mostly on the effect of falling energy costs.

The bank remains under pressure to ease again as Japan’s economy skirts recession and sluggish overseas demand weighs on exports.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	53.3		55.4
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Oct)	49%	45%	44%
AUD	Employment Change (Oct)	58.6K	15.0K	-0.8K
AUD	Full Employment Change (Oct)	40.0K		-10.4K
AUD	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.9%	6.2%	6.2%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 13, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)		1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.2%	0.1%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.8%	1.6%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.3%	0.4%
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		1.7%	1.5%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.4%	0.4%
EUR	Trade Balance (Sep)		18.2B	11.2B
USD	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.3%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.4%	-0.3%
USD	PPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.5%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)		0.3%	0.1%
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	0.0%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		84.0	82.1
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)		91.5	90.0
USD	FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			572