USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 13, 2015, 04:52 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY added 2 points as the greenback rallied in the morning session. Traders are closely evaluating today’s data

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 16, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY added 2 points as the greenback rallied in the morning session. Traders are closely evaluating today’s data including Japanese industrial production and the Tertiary Index. The pair is trading at 122.61.

Core private-sector machinery orders rose a seasonally adjusted 7.5 percent in September for the first gain in four months, led by increased orders from the nonmanufacturing sector, the government said Thursday. The value of the orders, widely regarded as a leading indicator of future growth. A leading index for the Japanese economy skidded in September, the Conference Board said on Friday, falling 0.8 percent following the 0.1 percent increase in August.

The positive contributors to the index include business failures, real money supply, real operating profits, the index of overtime worked, and the interest rate spread.

The negative contributors include stock prices, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, the new orders for machinery and construction component, dwelling units started, and the Tankan business conditions survey.

Major U.S. economic data is expected later on Friday — including a reading on retail sales growth in October, widely considered the main event — that could have a significant impact on the currency’s valuation, for better or worse.

Economists polled by MarketWatch expect retail-sales growth to accelerate in October, with a consensus forecast of 0.4%, compared with a reading of 0.1% growth in September.

Another important piece of data expected Friday is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer-price index will provide a glimpse of the inflation outlook in the U.S. Persistently low inflation has troubled the Federal Reserve — maintaining stable prices is one part of the central bank’s dual mandate — but policy makers have attributed it to temporary factors.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 16, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)			0.1%
JPY	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		-0.1%	-0.3%
JPY	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		-0.2%	-1.2%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)			0.9%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)
EUR	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	0.2%
USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		-5.00	-11.36