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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 3, 2015, 05:45 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY dipped 9 points to trade at 120.67 as the yen remains polarized to the 120.5 level. Japan is on holiday today for

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 4, 2015 – Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY dipped 9 points to trade at 120.67 as the yen remains polarized to the 120.5 level. Japan is on holiday today for Culture Day with no trading. The US dollar eased a bit in the Asian session but there has been low volume or interest.

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against other major currencies Monday as investors were digesting economic data both from the country and Eurozone.

On the U.S. economic front, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday that the country’s October manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 50.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the September reading of 50.2 percent, but above market consensus of 50.0 percent.

Meanwhile, financial data firm Markit reported Monday that the final reading on U.S. PMI in October picked up to a six month high at 54.1, up from 53.1 in September. U.S. consumers’ personal income and spending data came out lower than expected. In September, the two figures increased 0.1 percent respectively, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Dollar traders are waiting for Friday’s jobs data which could some indication to the Fed actions in December.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Culture Day

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

   

 

usdjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

4.100M

 

  NZD

 

Unemployment Rate (Q3)

 

6.0%

5.9%

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-3.000B

-3.095B

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

 

50.8

50.5

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

 

-0.7%

-0.9%

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (Oct)

 

55.2

55.2

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

180K

200K

 

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

-41.10B

-48.30B

 

  USD

 

Services PMI (Oct)

 

54.6

54.4

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies  

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

3.376M

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

       

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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