USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY gave up 16 points as the US dollar weakened and the JPY rebounded after the release of positive trade figures

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY gave up 16 points as the US dollar weakened and the JPY rebounded after the release of positive trade figures this morning. The Japanese trade deficit came in at Y958bn in September, which was just higher than the level it reached in August. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the trade shortfall to come in at Y780bn.

The trade data contained some good news, however. Japan’s exports rose 6.9 per cent in September, year on year, which was beyond economists’ expectations and also provides a boost to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to revive the nation’s manufacturing base. But imports rose by almost as much, gaining 6.2 per cent year on year.

The trade data showed that exports grew 6.9% in September from a year earlier, while imports rose 6.2%. Exports of parts for the new iPhones helped boost the export figure, while a large increase in natural gas imports added a volatile element to the import figure, ministry data showed.

The overall impact on the nation’s trade balance was to push up the deficit by 1.6% to ¥958.3 billion ($8.96 billion) from a year earlier, the first increase in three months. That compared with a median forecast for a ¥768 billion deficit in a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei.

The ongoing trade decline comes amid continued offshoring by Japanese multinationals—trend analysts say reduces the beneficial impact of a weaker yen on boosting export volumes.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Adjusted Trade Balance	-1.07T	-0.91T	-0.91T
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Aug)	6.9%	6.8%	-1.3%
JPY	Trade Balance (Sep)	-958B	-777B	-949B
AUD	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%
AUD	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%
AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI	0.4%	0.5%	0.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI		50.2	50.2
EUR	German Mfg PMI		49.5	49.9
EUR	German Services PMI		55.0	55.7
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.3
EUR	Services PMI (Sep)		52.0	52.4
GBP	BBA Mortgage		41.5K	41.6K
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.2%	0.2%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.4%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends		-4	-4
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		282K	264K