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USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – June 30, 2016

By
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jun 29, 2016, 16:58 GMT+00:00

Despite increased demand for risky assets, the USD/JPY weakened on Wednesday, slipping -0.08% or -0.085 to 102.663. The Forex pair was still up from last

Yen Stack

Despite increased demand for risky assets, the USD/JPY weakened on Wednesday, slipping -0.08% or -0.085 to 102.663. The Forex pair was still up from last week’s low at 99.15, its weakest level since November 2013. Traders continued to worry about whether Japan would take any action to weaken the Yen if it continued to strengthen.

Japanese Prime Minister on Wednesday pledged to use all available policy tools to protect the economy from the fallout from Brexit. “A sense of uncertainty and worry about risks remain in the markets,” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at a meeting between the government and the Bank of Japan to discuss market developments and put in place safeguards against political instability.

Fresh threats from the Japanese government and another rise in global equity markets could help weaken the Japanese Yen against the U.S. Dollar the rest of the week.

Chart analysts are also watch the price action at a key 50% level at 102.768. Overcoming this level will signal the presence of buyers.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jun) 5.1% 4.9% 4.7%
  GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
  EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul) 10.1 9.8 9.8
  EUR EU Leaders Summit      
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
  USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
  USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
  USD Personal Spending (MoM) (May) 0.4% 0.4% 1.1%
  EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks      
  USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) -3.7%  -1.1% 5.1%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.053M  -2.365M -0.917M
  USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.951M    -1.280M
  NZD Building Consents (MoM) (May)     6.6%
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (May)   -0.1% 0.5%
  NZD ANZ Business Confidence     11.3
  AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (May)   0.5% 0.5%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (May)   0.7% -0.9%
  EUR German Unemployment Change (Jun)   -5K -11K
  EUR German Unemployment Rate (Jun)   6.1% 6.1%
  GBP Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)     -0.5%
  GBP Current Account (Q1)   -27.1B -32.7B
  GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.4%
  GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1)   2.0% 2.0%
  EUR Core CPI (YoY)   0.8% 0.8%
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Jun)     -0.1%
  EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting      
  USD Initial Jobless Claims   267K 259K
  CAD GDP (MoM) (Apr)   0.1% -0.2%
  CAD RMPI (MoM) (May)   5.0% 0.7%
  USD Chicago PMI (Jun)   50.7 49.3
  USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks      
  AUD AIG Manufacturing Index     51.0
  JPY Household Spending (MoM) (May)   -0.2% 0.2%
  JPY Household Spending (YoY) (May)   -1.4% -0.4%
  JPY Jobs/applications ratio (May)   1.35 1.34
  JPY National Core CPI (YoY) (May)   -0.4% -0.3%
  JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)   -0.5% -0.5%
  JPY Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q2)   5.9% -0.9%
  JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q2)   3 3
  JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)   4 6
  JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2)   19 22
  CNY Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   50.0 50.1
  CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)     53.1
 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)   49.1 49.2

Government Bond Auctions

Jun 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

 

 

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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