Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY remained in a tight trading range in the mid to upper 102 price level as the yen weakened along with the
The USD/JPY remained in a tight trading range in the mid to upper 102 price level as the yen weakened along with the US dollar this week The JPY opened the week at 102.50 and closed at 102.69. In Japan Abe’s government has decided to take steps that will have an immediate effect, such as public works projects and provision of benefits to households, estimating the new package will create at least 250,000 jobs and boost Japan’s gross domestic product by around 1 percentage point after approving an additional budget for 18 trillion yen on Thursday. Most of the policy proposals in the package, however, do not break new ground, casting doubt on whether the stimulus plan can prevent the tax hike from hurting the economy, which has been steadily recovering on the back of “Abenomics” for the past year.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Dec 06, 2013 |
102.69 |
101.73 |
102.90 |
101.72 |
0.95% |
Dec 05, 2013 |
101.73 |
102.39 |
102.44 |
101.62 |
-0.64% |
Dec 04, 2013 |
102.39 |
102.32 |
102.83 |
101.82 |
0.07% |
Dec 03, 2013 |
102.32 |
102.94 |
103.38 |
101.98 |
-0.60% |
Dec 02, 2013 |
102.94 |
102.50 |
103.13 |
102.23 |
0.43% |
Late on Friday after Asian markets were closed the US released its nonfarm payroll data which far exceeded traders’ expectations and should have some effect on this pair early Monday morning as US stocks recovered and climbed on Friday. Some traders think this was the last piece of data that the Fed would need to start tapering others including this writer believe that Mr. Bernanke will pass over the holiday season and leave the decision up to his replacement, Ms. Yellen in January.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2011 to present
Highest: 103.73 on May 22, 2013
Average: 83.18over this period
Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Major Economic Events for the week of December 2-6 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 02 |
00:30 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-1.8% |
-5.0% |
16.9% |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) |
3.9% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
01:45 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.8 |
50.5 |
50.4 |
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
57.3 |
55.0 |
56.4 |
Dec. 03 |
00:30 |
AUD |
Current Account |
-12.7B |
-11.6B |
-12.1B |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
03:30 |
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
Dec. 04 |
00:30 |
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.6% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
|
00:30 |
AUD |
GDP (YoY) |
2.3% |
2.6% |
2.4% |
|
01:45 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Services PMI |
52.5 |
52.6 |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
215K |
173K |
184K |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-40.64B |
-40.00B |
-42.97B |
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.9 |
55.0 |
55.4 |
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
444K |
428K |
354K |
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
354K |
427K |
379K |
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
25.4% |
-6.6% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
-6.6% |
7.9% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment |
52.5 |
56.2 |
|
Dec. 05 |
00:30 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.529B |
-0.375B |
-0.271B |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
298K |
325K |
321K |
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
3.6% |
3.0% |
2.8% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Real Consumer Spending |
1.4% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Dec. 06 |
13:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
203K |
180K |
200K |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
13:30 |
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
196K |
180K |
214K |
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
82.5 |
76.0 |
75.1 |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 09 |
01:30 |
CNY |
3.2% |
3.2% |
|
|
01:30 |
CNY |
-1.4% |
-1.5% |
|
|
01:30 |
CNY |
0.1% |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
15.2 |
||
Dec. 10 |
00:30 |
AUD |
1.0% |
4.4% |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
5 |
||
|
05:30 |
CNY |
20.0% |
20.1% |
|
|
05:30 |
CNY |
10.1% |
10.3% |
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
-155.0B |
-91.6B |
|
|
23:50 |
JPY |
15.0% |
11.4% |
|
Dec. 11 |
20:00 |
NZD |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
Dec. 12 |
00:30 |
AUD |
10.0K |
1.1K |
|
|
00:30 |
AUD |
-27.9K |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.6% |
0.4% |
|
Dec. 13 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 09 10:00 Slovakia
Dec 09 16:30 Italy
Dec 10 09:30 Spain
Dec 10 10:10 Norway
Dec 10 10:15 Austria
Dec 10 10:30 UK
Dec 10 18:00 US
Dec 11 09:30 Swiss
Dec 11 10:03 Sweden
Dec 11 10:10 Italy
Dec 11 10:30 Germany
Dec 11 18:00 US
Dec 12 10:30 UK
Dec 12 16:00 US
Dec 12 18:00 US
Dec 13 11:00 Belgium
Dec 13 15:30 UK