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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 9-13, 2013 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 22, 2015, 18:00 GMT+00:00

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY remained in a tight trading range in the mid to upper 102 price level as the yen weakened along with the

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 9-13, 2013 Forecast

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 9-13, 2013 Forecast
USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 9-13, 2013 Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY remained in a tight trading range in the mid to upper 102 price level as the yen weakened along with the US dollar this week The JPY opened the week at 102.50 and closed at 102.69. In Japan Abe’s government has decided to take steps that will have an immediate effect, such as public works projects and provision of benefits to households, estimating the new package will create at least 250,000 jobs and boost Japan’s gross domestic product by around 1 percentage point after approving an additional budget for 18 trillion yen on Thursday. Most of the policy proposals in the package, however, do not break new ground, casting doubt on whether the stimulus plan can prevent the tax hike from hurting the economy, which has been steadily recovering on the back of “Abenomics” for the past year. 

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 06, 2013

102.69

101.73

102.90

101.72

0.95%

Dec 05, 2013

101.73

102.39

102.44

101.62

-0.64%

Dec 04, 2013

102.39

102.32

102.83

101.82

0.07%

Dec 03, 2013

102.32

102.94

103.38

101.98

-0.60%

Dec 02, 2013

102.94

102.50

103.13

102.23

0.43%

Late on Friday after Asian markets were closed the US released its nonfarm payroll data which far exceeded traders’ expectations and should have some effect on this pair early Monday morning as US stocks recovered and climbed on Friday. Some traders think this was the last piece of data that the Fed would need to start tapering others including this writer believe that Mr. Bernanke will pass over the holiday season and leave the decision up to his replacement, Ms. Yellen in January.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 103.73 on May 22, 2013

Average: 83.18over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

USDJPY(60 minutes)20131207074313

Major Economic Events for the week of December 2-6 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 02

00:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-1.8%

-5.0%

16.9%

 

00:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

3.9%

1.0%

0.4%

 

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.8

50.5

50.4

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI 

57.3

55.0

56.4

Dec. 03

00:30

AUD

Current Account 

-12.7B

-11.6B

-12.1B

 

00:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

0.9%

 

03:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

Dec. 04

00:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.8%

0.7%

 

00:30

AUD

GDP (YoY) 

2.3%

2.6%

2.4%

 

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

52.5

 

52.6

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

215K

173K

184K

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-40.64B

-40.00B

-42.97B

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 

53.9

55.0

55.4

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

444K

428K

354K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

354K

427K

379K

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) 

25.4%

 

-6.6%

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales (MoM) 

-6.6%

 

7.9%

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 

52.5

 

56.2

Dec. 05

00:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.529B

-0.375B

-0.271B

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

298K

325K

321K

 

13:30

USD

GDP Price Index (QoQ) 

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

3.6%

3.0%

2.8%

 

13:30

USD

Real Consumer Spending 

1.4%

1.5%

1.5%

Dec. 06 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

203K

180K

200K

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

196K

180K

214K

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

82.5

76.0

75.1

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 09

01:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.2%

3.2%

 

01:30

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.4%

-1.5%

 

01:30

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

0.1%

 

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

 

15.2

Dec. 10

00:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.0%

4.4%

 

00:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

5

 

05:30

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.0%

20.1%

 

05:30

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

10.1%

10.3%

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-155.0B

-91.6B

 

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) 

15.0%

11.4%

 Dec. 11

20:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

Dec. 12

00:30

AUD

Employment Change 

10.0K

1.1K

 

00:30

AUD

Full Employment Change 

 

-27.9K

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

-0.7%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6%

0.4%

 Dec. 13

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 09 10:00 Slovakia

Dec 09 16:30 Italy

Dec 10 09:30 Spain

Dec 10 10:10 Norway

Dec 10 10:15 Austria

Dec 10 10:30 UK

Dec 10 18:00 US

Dec 11 09:30 Swiss

Dec 11 10:03 Sweden

Dec 11 10:10 Italy

Dec 11 10:30 Germany

Dec 11 18:00 US

Dec 12 10:30 UK

Dec 12 16:00 US

Dec 12 18:00 US

Dec 13 11:00 Belgium

Dec 13 15:30 UK

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