USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 17 – 21, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY eased most of the week as the US dollar tumbled and traders looked for safety in the Japanese yen which ended the week at 101.47. The strength of the JPY is upsetting Japanese exporter who need the week yen to increase overseas sales. The U.S. dollar retreated against most major currencies on Friday and it fell against the yen for five consecutive days on growing concerns over Ukraine.

After a meeting of six hours in London between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, they failed to ease the tension and Crimea is still heading to the referendum on whether it will split from Ukraine to join Russia on Sunday.

Lavrov told a news conference after the meeting that Russia ” will respect the will of the Crimean people” and there’s “no common vision” on resolving the crisis.

The heated concerns over Ukraine as well as China’s economy boosted demand for safe-haven assets and lifted the yen, which posted the longest rising streak against the dollar since May 2013.

Growing tension between the West and Russia ahead of Ukraine’s weekend referendum in Crimea pushed down stocks on major world markets on Friday and drove up buying of safe-haven gold and the yen.
 
Financial markets watched nervously as the West increasingly talked about sanctions and Russia hit back with promises of retaliatory measures and displays of military prowess. The vote being held on Sunday by pro-Moscow authorities is to determine if Crimea will join Russia. Jitters also remained over the degree to which China’s economy is slowing after unsettling data this week and China’s first corporate bond default.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 105.44 on Jan 2, 2014

Average: 83.18 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

Major Economic Events for the week of March 10-14 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Mar 17 10:00

Mar 17 10:00 Slovakia

Mar 18 01:30 Japan

Mar 18 09:30 Spain

Mar 19 10:30 Germany

Mar 19 10:30 Portugal

Mar 20 09:30 Spain

Mar 20 10:03 Sweden

Mar 20 15:00 US

Mar 20 17:00 US

Mar 21 16:30 Italy