Weekly Waves 19 December: EUR/USD, US30 and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the US30 weekly chart, and the Bitcoin weekly chart.

EUR/USD Bearish Candlestick Pattern Completes Bull Run

The EUR/USD is building a rising wedge chart pattern, which could indicate a bearish reversal soon:

1. The EUR/USD is building a 5th bullish wave (orange).
2. This 5th wave (orange) seems to be completed due to the strong bearish candlestick pattern last week.
3. Price action is now testing the support trend line (green) of the rising wedge pattern.
4. A breakout (red arrow) below the support line would confirm the end of the wave 5 (orange) of wave C (green) and wave W (yellow).
5. A larger WXY (yellow) could develop within a wave 4 (pink) pattern.

US30 Bearish Reversal Aims at $25k Support

The US30 chart made a strong bullish rally after breaking below the $30k support level. Let’s review the next expected price swings:

1. The US30 has reached a key resistance zone due to the deep Fibonacci levels.
2. The US30 showed strong bearish candlestick patterns at the resistance zone, which indicates a potential bearish reversal.
3. The bullish swing is expected to be a wave C (orange) of a larger ABC (orange) correction in wave B (green).
4. Now that the ABC (orange) of wave B (green) is completed, price action should start a downtrend within an impulsive wave C (green) of a larger ABC (green).
5. The main bearish target is the -27.2% Fibonacci target at $27,676. The -61.8% Fibonacci target is located around the $25k support.

Bitcoin Rejection Weekly Candle

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and has been unable to break above that level ever since:

1. The indecisive price action followed by last week’s bearish rejection candlestick pattern leaves the door open for a downtrend continuation.
2. The next bearish price swing (red arrow) is aiming at the 88.6% Fibonacci around $11.2k.
3. Price action could bounce back up (blue arrow) at this support Fibonacci level.
4. A bullish bounce could mark the end of the bearish ABC (yellow) pattern within wave W (pink).
5. A bullish bounce could be within a wave X (pink) of a larger WXY (pink) in wave 2 (gray).

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter