Weekly Waves 8 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the GBP/USD daily chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency daily chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Breakout Expected for Push to 1.05

The EUR/USD is building a contracting triangle chart pattern. Let’s review what to expect with the next price swing:

1. The EUR/USD seems to be building a sideways consolidation after price action showed a strong bullish impulsive with 3 bullish daily candles.
2. The bullish momentum is probably a wave A (yellow) and the sideways triangle pattern is expected to be a wave B (yellow).
3. Usually these patterns show a bullish breakout (blue arrow) to complete wave B and start wave C (yellow).
4. However, a bearish breakout does not invalidate the wave B (yellow) as long as price action stays above the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave A.
5. The main target for the wave C is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.05.
6. A breakout above the resistance line could indicate the start of the wave C (yellow).
7. A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level could complete the ABC (yellow) within wave W (pink).
8. A larger WXY (pink) correction could occur within wave 4 (gray) as long as the shallow resistance Fibs are respected.

GBP/USD Bearish ABC towards 1.19-1.20

The GBP/USD is building a bearish retracement but a key support zone is nearby:

1. The GBP/USD also seems to be building an ABC (yellow) pattern.
2. The wave B (yellow) could make a deeper retracement towards the inverted head and shoulders support level (purple).
3. A bullish bounce could aim at the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level near 1.25.
4. The ABC (yellow) could complete a wave W (pink) of a larger WXY (pink) in wave 4 (gray).
5. A bearish ABC bounce could emerge within wave X (pink) at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

BTC/USD Breaking Above Key Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) seems to be building an uptrend after creating several higher highs and higher lows:

1. BTC/USD has broken above the daily highs of the past several days.
2. The bullish breakout could indicate a bullish continuation after BTC/USD already managed to show several higher highs and higher lows.
3. The main target of the 5 wave pattern (yellow) within a larger ABC (pink) pattern is at the 30k price level near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
4. A break below the bottoms would invalidate the bullish reversal.
5. A larger WXY (blue) complex correction could take place within the expected wave B (gray) correction.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter