Gold is everyone’s favourite trade when terms like “Crisis” and “Conflict” begin dominating the headlines – just like we're seeing right now.
The precious metal has been on an unstoppable run, rallying from near the $1,800 level at the beginning of October to a four-week high of $1,947 an ounce on Wednesday – notching up an impressive gain of over 7%, so far this month.
Right now, Gold is doing what it does best – acting as the ‘go-to’ safe-haven in times of uncertainty.
In recent days, Israel has been bombing Gaza and preparing its forces for a potential ground invasion as it seeks to crush Hamas. Traders are on high alert in case the conflict spills over into the wider Middle East region – essentially turning it into a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which supports Hamas.
Iran has already warned of the scope for escalation, saying earlier this week that such an outcome was becoming “inevitable.”
An escalation of the Israeli-Hamas war would be the second geopolitical shock for the global economy in less than two years. The wider the conflict spreads, the more its impact becomes global rather than regional.
Elsewhere in the commodity markets – Oil prices have been whipping up an explosive money-making storm – firmly positioning the entire energy sector as one of the hottest asset classes of 2023.
With the Middle East home to a third of global Crude Oil supply, there is a very strong possibility that escalating tensions could take millions of barrels off the market a very critical time when Oil supplies have already been depleted by months of sharp production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices have continued their bullish trend with Brent crude, the international benchmark surging almost 4% today to touch $93 a barrel – its highest level for the month. Meanwhile, European gas prices have notched up a stunning gain of over 40%, the largest weekly leap on record, seen so far this year.
And the rally might not stop there!
Right now we have crisis on top of crisis, which as traders know – translates to opportunity on top of opportunity. While Commodities certainly don’t need a crisis to move higher, they definitely love a crisis!
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. It won’t take much for Commodity prices to move significantly higher in this current macro-environment and breach new record highs in the coming weeks and months ahead.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Phil Carr is co-founder and the Head of Trading at The Gold & Silver Club, an international Commodities Trading, Research and Data-Intelligence firm.