WTI and Brent Crude Forecasts – Geopolitical Noise Locks Oil in Summer Range

WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has shown itself to be bullish as Americans have attacked the Iranians again, and as a result, it looks like the market is going to continue to determine that the $70 area is an area of significant support. If you’ve been watching me, I’ve kind of been calling for this anyway. We just needed a reason to finalize that concept; maybe that’s what we just got.

I still think the 200-day EMA above is resistance, so I think we’re just in a range. I don’t necessarily anticipate this market taking off in one direction or the other, but I think you would look at a nice range-bound trading environment.

Geopolitical Shocks Challenge Key Moving Averages and Floors

Brent markets have rallied a bit as well, gapping straight to the upside, but the 200-day EMA above, I think, offers a bit of a barrier. To the downside, the $70 level is an area that I think is a floor as well. Right now, I think we’re trying to find the summer range that we typically see in this market; we just don’t know exactly where it’s going to be yet.

So, with that being the case, I watch this market for signs of exhaustion and maybe signs of peace in the Middle East to short, and then every time we get a little bit of nervous, I think you go long. Eventually, we’ll settle into a defined range; I think we’re still in the middle of trying to figure out where that is.

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