XRP Bears Continue to Target Sub-$0.45 on SEC v Ripple Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, XRP bucked the broader market trend, falling by 0.01% to end the day at $0.47994.
• Investor disappointment toward the Hinman speech-related docs continued to leave XRP under pressure.
• The technical indicators send bearish signals, bringing sub-$0.45 into view.

On Thursday, XRP slipped by 0.01%. Following a 7.56% slide on Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.47994. A range-bound session left XRP short of the $0.50 handle for the first time since May 29.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to a mid-morning high of $0.48511. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5130, XRP fell to a late afternoon low of $0.46761. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4542, XRP bounced back to end the day at $0.47994.

Hinman Doc Disappointment Overshadow Fed Sentiment

It was a busy Thursday session, with US economic indicators drawing interest after the hawkish Fed pause.

The stats eased fears of a US hard landing, with retail sales rising while jobless claims held steady. Manufacturing sector data delivered mixed signals. However, the manufacturing sector only contributes a small portion to the US economy, thus limiting the impact on market risk sentiment.

While the broader crypto market found support, investor angst over the Hinman speech-related documents pegged XRP back from a bullish session. The speech-related documents failed to cause a stir or force the SEC into a settlement, leaving Judge Torres to deliver on pending filings.

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to distract investors.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Friday session. Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation numbers will draw interest this afternoon. A pickup in consumer sentiment would support the appetite for riskier assets.

Investors should also consider Fed chatter, with FOMC members Waller and Bullard speaking today.

While the US economic calendar will influence, we expect SEC v Ripple case-related news to remain the focal point. However, investors should also monitor SEC v Binance and SEC-Coinbase (COIN)-related chatter.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.75% to $0.47633. A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall from an opening price of $0.47970 to a low of $0.47521.

XRP Technical Indicators

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.49345. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.4875) and the 200-day EMA ($0.49345) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.4951). However, failure to move through the 200-day ($0.49345) would leave S1 ($0.4700) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.50484) would send a bullish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to move through the $0.4776 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4875. A move through the Thursday high of $0.48511 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4951 and resistance at $0.50. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5126.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4700 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.45. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4601 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4426.