XRP News Today: Bullish Momentum Builds as ETF Volumes Surge

XRP is eyeing a six-day winning streak, breaking above $2.35 as the XRP-spot ETF market trading volume hits record highs on Monday, January 5.

XRP-spot ETF inflows tilted the supply-demand balance firmly in XRP’s favor, triggering a 12% rally. The sharp upswing in demand coincided with increased optimism over the Market Structure Bill.

Supply-demand squeezes and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation are two crucial price catalysts, supporting the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETFs Report Record Trading Volumes

The US XRP-spot ETF market took center stage on January 5, as daily trading volumes reached $72.15 million, its highest since launch on November 14. XRP-spot ETF issuers saw net inflows of $46.1 million, taking total net inflows since November 14 to $1.23 billion.

Importantly, the US XRP-spot ETF market has yet to report outflows, underscoring robust demand for the token.

XRP-spot ETF market flows, surging trading volumes, and sharply lower exchange balances fueled FOMO. According to XRP Scan, the number of active user accounts (unique senders) surged from 15,571 on January 1 to 22,567 on January 5, the highest level since December 4.

Market Structure Bill Markup in Focus

Investor optimism over US lawmakers passing the Market Structure Bill has been a key price catalyst for XRP. At year-end, the US Senate Banking Committee announced a January 15 markup date for the Market Structure Bill. XRP has soared 27% since, underscoring the token’s sensitivity to legislative developments.

Analysts view the Market Structure Bill as the final step to legitimizing XRP as a non-security following the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case.

In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The SEC filed an appeal against the ruling before withdrawing its legal challenge in early 2025. The US Court of Appeals approved the SEC and Ripple’s appeal withdrawal requests in August 2025, enforcing Judge Torres’ ruling on the programmatic sales of XRP.

The 2023 ruling and the appeal withdrawals paved the way to the US XRP-spot ETF market, given the absence of clear rules and regulations for the US digital asset space.

An XRP Decoupling from Bitcoin in View

Crucially, analysts expect the Market Structure Bill to untap a new investor pool, more akin to trading products under robust regulatory oversight. Given XRP’s real-world utility, crypto experts predict a decoupling in 2026 from Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.

Steven McClurg, Canary Funds CEO, recently discussed a potential decoupling, stating:

“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin, but there are a handful of assets that I do believe will diverge in this manner and just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows every day and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”

Notably, XRP has rallied 29.13% year-to-date, while BTC has risen by a more modest 7.38%, supporting McClurg’s prediction.

Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the progress of the Market Structure Bill reaffirm the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

XRP Bullish Outlook Intact

Resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the progress toward crypto-friendly legislation reaffirmed the bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. Meanwhile, increased utility, hopes for Fed rate cuts, and expectations of the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reinforced the positive longer-term price trajectories:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66.

Key Risks Challenge Bullish Outlook

Several events could derail the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan announces a neutral interest rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%, indicating multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate may incite a yen carry trade unwind, which would weigh on risk assets.
• US economic indicators and the Fed are tempering expectations of a March rate cut.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings are likely to temper interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These events would likely trigger a reversal, pushing XRP below $2, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Indicators Continue to Signal Caution

XRP rallied 12.25% on Monday, January 5, following the previous day’s 3.59% gain, closing at $2.3470. The token mirrored the broader crypto market cap, which climbed 2.67%.

A five-day winning streak and early gains on Tuesday, January 6, sent XRP above its 200-day EMA. Currently trading above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, the technical indicators align with the fundamentals, signaling bullish momentum.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA support: $2.0674.
• 200-day EMA support: $2.3481.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Viewing the daily chart, a sustained break above the 200-day EMA would signal a bullish trend reversal, bringing the $2.5 resistance level into play.

Crucially, the breakout above the EMAs reinforced the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.

Fundamental Indicators: the Fed, the Market Structure Bill, and Spot ETF Flows

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s rate path.
• US crypto-related regulatory developments.

Holding Above $2.2 Key for the Bullish Structure

XRP’s breakout above $2.0 revealed a shift in investor sentiment after the H2 2025 slump from record highs to sub-$1.8 levels. However, improving fundamentals triggered a breakout, affirming the bullish structure and constructive short- to medium-term bias.

A sustained move through the upper trendline would validate the bullish structure and reaffirm the bullish trend reversal, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a break below the upper trendline would expose the lower trendline. A fall through the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish structure, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Outlook:

Looking ahead, central bank policy signals, US economic indicators, crypto-related legislative developments, and XRP-spot ETF flow trends will dictate the near-term price outlook.

A dovish Fed, and a lower BoJ neutral rate, ranging between 1% and 1.25%, would likely boost sentiment. Robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the bullish outlook.

In summary, strong institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs and crypto legislative developments support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. A March Fed rate cut and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Looking beyond the 12-week time horizon, these key price catalysts are likely to send XRP above its all-time high $3.66, with $5 as the next key price target over a 6- to 12-month timeline.